{"id":294,"date":"2015-02-10T10:10:00","date_gmt":"2015-02-10T02:10:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/\/blog-pos-22\/"},"modified":"2023-09-19T13:25:06","modified_gmt":"2023-09-19T05:25:06","slug":"blog-pos-22","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/\/blog-pos-22\/","title":{"rendered":"\u5e73\u8ced\u6cd5vs.\u9006\u5e73\u8ced\u6cd5 \u300b\u5e7e\u4e4e\u90fd\u8d0f\u548c\u4e0d\u6703\u5927\u8f38\uff0c\u4f60\u8981\u9078\u54ea\u4e00\u500b?"},"content":{"rendered":"<!-- \/367108978\/Rich01_PC_up_728x90 -->\n\t<div class='div-gpt-ad-css' id='div-gpt-ad-1564472272479-0' style='width: 728px; height: 90px;'>\n\t  <script>\n\t\tgoogletag.cmd.push(function() { googletag.display('div-gpt-ad-1564472272479-0'); });\n\t  <\/script>\n\t<\/div><p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-43889\" src=/index.html"https:\/\/\/wp-content\/uploads\/20221109101801_86.jpg\" alt=\"\u5e73\u8ced\u6cd5-\u9006\u5e73\u8ced\u6cd5\" width=\"2090\" height=\"1094\" srcset=\"https:\/\/\/wp-content\/uploads\/20221109101801_86.jpg 2090w, https:\/\/\/wp-content\/uploads\/20221109101801_86-1536x804.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/\/wp-content\/uploads\/20221109101801_86-2048x1072.jpg 2048w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 2090px) 100vw, 2090px\" 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id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_64 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-grey ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\">\u672c\u6587\u5e02\u5834\u5148\u751f\u6703\u544a\u8a34\u4f60\uff1a<\/p>\n<label for=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-66122cad56158\" class=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-label\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 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href=/index.html"https:\/\/\/blog-pos-22\/#%E9%80%86%E5%B9%B3%E8%B3%AD%E6%B3%95%E6%98%AF%E4%BB%80%E9%BA%BC%EF%BC%9F\" title=\"\u9006\u5e73\u8ced\u6cd5\u662f\u4ec0\u9ebc\uff1f\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u9006\u5e73\u8ced\u6cd5\u662f\u4ec0\u9ebc\uff1f<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-5\" href=/index.html"https:\/\/\/blog-pos-22\/#%E9%80%86%E5%B9%B3%E8%B3%AD%E6%B3%95%E7%9A%84%E5%84%AA%E9%BB%9E%E6%98%AF%E4%BB%80%E9%BA%BC%EF%BC%9F\" title=\"\u9006\u5e73\u8ced\u6cd5\u7684\u512a\u9ede\u662f\u4ec0\u9ebc\uff1f\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u9006\u5e73\u8ced\u6cd5\u7684\u512a\u9ede\u662f\u4ec0\u9ebc\uff1f<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%E5%B9%B3%E8%B3%AD%E6%B3%95%E6%98%AF%E4%BB%80%E9%BA%BC%EF%BC%9F\"><\/span>\u5e73\u8ced\u6cd5\u662f\u4ec0\u9ebc\uff1f<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>\u5e73\u8ced\u6cd5\u53c8\u7a31\u70ba\u99ac\u4e01\u683c\u723e\u6cd5\uff0c<b>\u9019\u662f\u4e00\u7a2e\u8cc7\u91d1\u63a7\u7ba1\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u5b83\u5728 \u8667\u640d\u6642 \u589e\u52a0\u8ced\u6ce8\uff0c\u4f46 \u7372\u5229\u6642 \u6e1b\u5c11\u8ced\u6ce8\u3002<\/b><\/p>\n<p>\u5047\u8a2d\u8cfa\u8ce0\u91d1\u984d\u540c\u6a23\u5927\u5c0f\uff0c\u8ce0\u7387\u662f 1\u8ce0 1\u3002\u6bcf\u6b21\u53ea\u8981 \u8ce0\u9322\uff0c\u5c31\u628a\u8ced\u6ce8\u653e\u5927\u4e00\u500d\uff0c\u800c\u8cfa\u9322\u6642\uff0c\u8ced\u6ce8\u56de\u52301\u500b\u55ae\u4f4d\u91cd\u65b0\u958b\u59cb\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6bd4\u65b9\u8aaa\uff0c<\/p>\n<p>\u8ce01\u55ae\u4f4d\uff0c\u4e0b\u6b21\u5c31\u52a0\u78bc\u52302\u55ae\u4f4d\uff0c\u6b64\u6642\u5982\u679c\u8d0f\u4e86\uff0c\u5c31\u5012\u8cfa 1\u55ae\u4f4d\u56de\u4f86\uff0c<\/p>\n<p>\u5982\u679c\u8f38\u4e86\uff0c\u5c31\u518d\u52a0\u78bc\u4e00\u500d\u52304\u55ae\u4f4d 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id=\"%E5%B9%B3%E8%B3%AD%E6%B3%95%E7%9A%84%E5%95%8F%E9%A1%8C%E6%98%AF%E4%BB%80%E9%BA%BC%EF%BC%9F\"><\/span><strong>\u5e73\u8ced\u6cd5\u7684\u554f\u984c\u662f\u4ec0\u9ebc\uff1f<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>\u7576\u6975\u5c0f\u7684\u6a5f\u7387\u767c\u751f\u6642\uff0c\u6574\u500b\u7b56\u7565\u98a8\u96aa\u5c31\u975e\u5e38\u7684\u9ad8\uff0c\u6bd4\u65b9\u9023\u8f3810\u5834\uff0c\u5c31\u8981\u62ff\u51fa\u539f\u672c\u7372\u5229\u76841024\u500d\u91d1\u984d\u505a\u70ba\u4e0b\u4e00\u5834\u7684\u8ced\u6ce8\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6bd4\u65b9\u8aaa\uff0c\u4f60\u4e00\u958b\u59cb\u62ff<b> 1000\u5143<\/b>\u51fa\u4f86\u4e0b\u8ced\uff0c\u4f46\u4e0d\u5e78\u7684\u00a0<b>\u9023\u8f3810\u6b21<\/b>\uff0c\u9019\u6642\u5019\u60f3\u8d0f\u4e0b\u4e00\u628a\uff0c\u5c31\u5f97\u62ff\u51fa<b> 100\u842c<\/b>\u4f86\u8ced\uff0c<\/p>\n<p>\u5982\u679c\u518d\u8f38 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id=\"%E9%80%86%E5%B9%B3%E8%B3%AD%E6%B3%95%E6%98%AF%E4%BB%80%E9%BA%BC%EF%BC%9F\"><\/span>\u9006\u5e73\u8ced\u6cd5\u662f\u4ec0\u9ebc\uff1f<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>\u9006\u5e73\u8ced\u6cd5\u7a31\u70ba \u53cd\u99ac\u4e01\u683c\u723e\u6cd5\uff0c\u5b83\u548c\u5e73\u8ced\u6cd5\u6b63\u597d\u76f8\uff0c\u9006\u5e73\u8ced\u6cd5<b>\u7576\u8667\u640d\u6642\u5c31\u6e1b\u5c11\u8ced\u6ce8\uff0c\u52dd\u5229\u6642 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class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p><b>\u5b83\u6700\u5927\u7684\u512a\u9ede\u5c31\u662f\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u5c07\u8667\u640d\u63a7\u5236\u5728\u4e00\u5b9a\u7684\u7bc4\u570d\u5167\u3002<\/b><\/p>\n<p>\u60f3\u8981\u6490\u5f97\u66f4\u4e45?\u00a0 \u964d\u4f4e\u767e\u5206\u6bd4\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u4e86\u3002<br \/>\n(\u5be6\u969b\u4e0a\uff0c10%\u4ecd\u662f\u5f88\u5bb9\u6613\u5931\u6557\uff0c\u61c9\u8a72\u8a2d\u5b9a 5%\u6216\u66f4\u4f4e)<\/p>\n<p><b>\u8207\u5e73\u8ced\u6cd5\u76f8\u53cd\uff0c\u9006\u5e73\u8ced\u6cd5\u5728\u7372\u5229\u6642\u6703\u9078\u64c7\u52a0\u78bc\u3002<\/b><\/p>\n<p>\u6bd4\u65b9\u8aaa\uff0c\u4e00\u958b\u59cb\u6709100\u5143\uff0c\u62ff\u51fa10\u5143\u53bb\u8cfa\u4e8610\u5143\uff0c\u9019\u6642\u8cc7\u91d1\u5c31\u8b8a\u6210110\u5143\uff0c<\/p>\n<p>\u4e0b\u4e00\u6b21\u62ff\u51fa\u7684\u91d1\u984d\u5247\u662f110\u768410%\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f11\u5143\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u7372\u5229\uff0c\u6295\u5165\u7684\u91d1\u984d\u5c31\u6703\u8d8a\u4f86\u8d8a\u9ad8\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u7576\u9577\u671f\u64cd\u4f5c\u4e00\u500b\u7b56\u7565\uff0c\u5982\u679c<a href=/index.html"https:\/\/\/positive-negative-expected-value-thinking-2023\/\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u671f\u671b\u503c<\/a>\u7ad9\u5728\u4f60\u9019\u908a\uff0c\u53ea\u8981\u6642\u9593\u5920\u4e45\u4e00\u5b9a\u6703\u7372\u5229\u3002<\/p>\n<p><b>\u4f46\u4e2d\u9593\u7684\u904e\u7a0b\u4e0d\u662f\u76f4\u7dda\uff0c<\/b>\u5982\u679c\u8cc7\u91d1\u627f\u64d4\u4e0d\u8d77\u5de8\u5927\u7684\u8d77\u843d\u904e\u7a0b\uff0c\u9084\u6c92\u6bd4\u5c31\u5148\u8f38\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><b>\u9006\u5e73\u8ced\u6cd5\u4e26\u975e\u4e0d\u6703\u5931\u6557\uff0c<\/b><b>\u4f46\u5b83\u548c\u5e73\u8ced\u6cd5\u6bd4\u8d77\u4f86\uff0c\u591a\u4e86\u5f88\u591a\u5bb9\u932f\u7a7a\u9593\u3002<\/b><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>\u5e73\u8ced\u6cd5\u5927\u7d04\u9023\u8f3810\u6b21\u6642\uff0c\u5c31\u8981\u62ff\u51fa\u539f\u59cb\u8cc7\u91d1\u76841024\u500d\u7576\u4e0b\u6b21\u8ced\u6ce8\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u63db\u53e5\u8a71\u8aaa\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u4e00\u958b\u59cb\u53ea\u62ff\u51fa0.1%\u7684\u8cc7\u91d1\uff0c\u4f46\u9047\u5230\u4e00\u6b21\u9023\u8f3810\u6b21\u6642\uff0c\u5c31\u7b49\u65bc\u8981\u8667\u6389 102.4%\u672c\u91d1\u4e86\u3002\u800c\u9006\u5e73\u8ced\u6cd5\u4e00\u6b21\u62ff\u51fa10%\u7684\u8cc7\u91d1\uff0c<\/p>\n<p>\u9023\u8f3810\u6b21\u6642\uff0c\u5927\u7d04\u9084\u5269\u4e0b34%\u7684\u8cc7\u91d1\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4e00\u6b21\u53ea\u62ff\u51fa5%\uff0c\u90a3\u9023\u8f3810\u6b21\u6642\uff0c\u5927\u7d04\u9084\u5269\u4e0b60%\u8cc7\u91d1\uff0c<\/p>\n<p>\u9023\u8f3820\u6b21\u6642\uff0c\u4e5f\u9084\u5269\u4e0b35%\u8cc7\u91d1\u3002\u5169\u8005<b>\u5bb9\u932f\u5ea6<\/b>\u7684\u5dee\u5225\u5f88\u8f15\u6613\u5730\u53ef\u4ee5\u6bd4\u51fa\u9ad8\u4f4e\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u800c\u5728\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u5834\u4e2d\uff0c\u9019\u5169\u7a2e\u65b9\u6cd5\u6bd4\u8f03\u5c11\u88ab\u63d0\u5230<\/p>\n<p><b>\u4e0d\u7ba1\u662f\u80a1\u7968\u9084\u662f\u671f\u8ca8\u7b49\u5546\u54c1\uff0c\u90fd\u5f88\u96e3\u5c07\u640d\u76ca\u63a7\u5236\u5728\u4e00\u5b9a\u7684\u6578\u5b57\uff0c<\/b><\/p>\n<p>\u4f46\u5b83\u7684\u52a0\u6e1b\u78bc\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\u5176\u5be6\u662f\u4e00\u6a21\u4e00\u6a23\u3002\u5c0d\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u4f86\u8aaa\uff0c\u5927\u8667\u975e\u5e38\u5f88\u4e0d\u5229\uff0c\u6bd4\u65b950%\u7684\u8667\u640d\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u60f3\u8cfa\u56de\u4f86\uff0c\u8981\u7372\u5229100%\uff0c<\/p>\n<p>\u56e0\u6b64\u8cfa10\u5143\u548c\u8ce010\u5143\u672c\u8cea\u7684\u610f\u7fa9\u4e0a\u4e26\u4e0d\u4e00\u6a23\u3002<b>\u5e73\u8ced\u6cd5 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data-wpel-link=\"external\">\u4e0b\u8f09\u9023\u7d50<\/a>)(\u653e\u5728GOOGLE\u96f2\u7aef\u786c\u789f\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u6293\u4e0b\u4f86)<\/p>\n<p>\u81ea\u5df1\u9a57\u7b97\u770b\u770b\uff0c\u9019\u5169\u7a2e\u65b9\u6cd5\u7684\u5dee\u5225\u3002\u5047\u8a2d\u8ce0\u7387 1\u8ce01\uff0c\u52dd\u738750%\u7684\u72c0\u6cc1\u4e0b (\u671f\u671b\u503c\u70ba0)\uff0c\u4ea4\u66132000\u6b21\u3002<br \/>\n\u4e00\u958b\u59cb\u6295\u51650.1%\u7684\u5e73\u8ced\u6cd5\uff0c\u6709\u591a\u5c11\u6a5f\u7387\u6703\u7834\u7522?<b>\u7b54\u6848\u662f\uff0c\u5e73\u8ced\u6cd5\u670935%\u6a5f\u7387\u7834\u7522\u3002<\/b>\u5f88\u9ad8\u5427?<\/p>\n<p>100\u500b\u4eba\u6703\u670965\u500b\u56e0\u70ba\u9019\u65b9\u6cd5\u8cfa\u9322\uff0c\u4f46\u6703\u670935\u500b\u5fb9\u5e95\u7834\u7522\u3002<b>\u4f46\u6295\u51650.1%\u7684 \u9006\u5e73\u8ced\u6cd5\uff0c\u7834\u7522\u6a5f\u7387\u662f0\uff01<\/b><br \/>\n<b>\u751a\u81f3\u5f88\u96e3\u964d\u5230 80%\u4ee5\u4e0b\uff0c<\/b><br 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