{"id":402,"date":"2014-09-28T11:38:00","date_gmt":"2014-09-28T03:38:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/\/is\/"},"modified":"2019-02-13T11:07:36","modified_gmt":"2019-02-13T03:07:36","slug":"is","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/\/is\/","title":{"rendered":"\u7e3d\u7d93\u6307\u6a19 &#8211; ISM \u88fd\u9020\u696d\u6307\u6578   \u7121\u6cd5\u9810\u6e2c\u672a\u4f86\u4e0a\u6f32\uff0c\u4f46\u53ef\u4ee5\u907f\u958b\u672a\u4f86\u5927\u8dcc"},"content":{"rendered":"<!-- \/367108978\/Rich01_PC_up_728x90 -->\n\t<div class='div-gpt-ad-css' id='div-gpt-ad-1564472272479-0' style='width: 728px; height: 90px;'>\n\t  <script>\n\t\tgoogletag.cmd.push(function() { googletag.display('div-gpt-ad-1564472272479-0'); });\n\t  <\/script>\n\t<\/div><p><img decoding=\"async\" src=/index.html"http:\/\/\/wp-content\/uploads\/20171206115504_3.jpg\" width=\"640\" height=\"430\" border=\"0\" \/><\/p>\n<p>\u300c\u4f60\u77e5\u9053ISM\u88fd\u9020\u696d\u6307\u6578\u55ce?\u300d<\/p>\n<p>\u4eca\u5929\u65e9\u4e0a\u670b\u53cb\u4e1f\u51fa\u4e86\u9019\u500b\u554f\u984c\uff0c<\/p>\n<p>\u300c\u5b83\u7684\u8a08\u7b97\u516c\u5f0f\uff0c\u662f\u8acb\u63a1\u8cfc\u7d93\u7406\u4eba\u586b\u5beb\u554f\u5238\uff0c\u554f\u984c\u5167\u5bb9\u5305\u542b\u8a02\u55ae\u3001\u5b58\u8ca8\u3001\u92b7\u552e\u72c0\u6cc1\u7b49\u7b49\uff0c\u800c\u554f\u5238\u53ea\u67093\u500b\u9078\u9805\uff0c<b>\u4e0a\u5347\u3001\u6301\u5e73\u3001\u4e0b\u964d<\/b>\u3002\u300d<\/p>\n<p>\u67e5\u4e86\u4e00\u4e0b\u7db2\u8def\u4e0a\u7684\u8cc7\u6599(<a href=/index.html"http:\/\/www.cier.edu.tw\/site\/cier\/public\/data\/%E8%87%BA%E7%81%A3%E8%A3%BD%E9%80%A0%E6%A5%AD%E6%8E%A1%E8%B3%BC%E7%B6%93%E7%90%86%E4%BA%BA%E6%8C%87%E6%95%B8.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\" data-wpel-link=\"external\">\u53c3\u8003\u8cc7\u65991<\/a>\u3001<a href=/index.html"http:\/\/wiki.mbalib.com\/zh-tw\/%E9%87%87%E8%B4%AD%E7%BB%8F%E7%90%86%E4%BA%BA%E6%8C%87%E6%95%B0\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\" data-wpel-link=\"external\">\u53c3\u8003\u8cc7\u65992<\/a>\u3001<a href=/index.html"http:\/\/statementdog.com\/blog\/archives\/1944\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\" data-wpel-link=\"external\">\u53c3\u8003\u8cc7\u65993<\/a>\u3001<a href=/index.html"http:\/\/greenhornfinancefootnote.blogspot.tw\/2007\/06\/blog-post_7320.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\" data-wpel-link=\"external\">\u53c3\u8003\u8cc7\u65994<\/a>)\uff0c<br \/>\n\u770b\u4f86\u7684\u78ba\u662f\u5982\u6b64\uff0c<\/p>\n<p>\u300c\u4f8b\u5982\uff1a\u92b7\u552e\u4e0a\u5347\u5c31\u7576100\u5206\uff0c\u6301\u5e73\u7576\u621050\u5206\uff0c\u6e1b\u5c11\u7576\u62100\u5206\uff0c\u5b83\u8a55\u4f30\u4e86\u5e7e\u9805\u6307\u6a19\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u6536\u96c6\u4e86\u4e0d\u540c\u4f01\u696d\u6578\u767e\u500b\u9019\u6a23\u7684\u554f\u5238\uff0c\u6700\u5f8c\u7d9c\u5408\u51fa\u4e00\u500b 0\u5206\u5230100\u5206 \u7684\u6307\u6578\u3002\u300d<\/p>\n<p>\u300c\u611f\u89ba\u5f88\u6709\u8da3\uff0c\u4e0d\u7136\u6211\u5011\u6e2c\u8a66\u4e00\u4e0b\uff0c\u770b\u6578\u5b57\u600e\u9ebc\u8aaa\u3002 \u300d<\/p>\n<p><!--more--><\/p>\n<p>\u5169\u500b\u5c0f\u6642\u5f8c\u6211\u5011\u5f97\u5230\u7d50\u8ad6\uff1a<\/p>\n<p>ISM \u88fd\u9020\u696d\u6307\u6578 \u5c0d\u7372\u5229\u6c92\u5e6b\u52a9\uff0c\u4f46\u53ef\u4ee5\u505a\u70ba\u907f\u96aa\u7684\u53c3\u8003<br \/>\n1. \u5b83\u7121\u6cd5\u9810\u6e2c\u9577\u671f\u80a1\u50f9\u8b8a\u5316\uff0c\u81f3\u5c11\u7121\u6cd5\u61c9\u7528\u5728\u9053\u74ca\u5de5\u696d\u6307\u6578\u3001S&amp;P500\u6307\u6578\u7b49\u5e7e\u9805\u80a1\u50f9\u6307\u6578\u4e0a\u3002<br \/>\n2. \u7576\u6307\u6578\u9023\u7e8c\u4e09\u500b\u6708\u905e\u6e1b\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u8003\u616e\u66ab\u6642\u51fa\u5834\u8ff4\u907f\u3002<br \/>\n\u4ee5\u4e0b\u662f\u63a8\u8ad6\u904e\u7a0b\u3002<\/p>\n<h2>ISM\u88fd\u9020\u696d\u6307\u6578\u7684\u57fa\u672c\u5047\u8a2d<\/h2>\n<p><strong>1. \u5047\u8a2d\u586b\u5beb\u554f\u5238\u7684\u63a1\u8cfc\u7d93\u7406\u4eba\uff0c\u5c0d\u5b83\u7684\u7684\u4f01\u696d\u73fe\u6cc1\u6709\u8db3\u5920\u7684\u4e86\u89e3\uff0c\u586b\u5beb\u6642\u6c92\u6709\u6a21\u7cca\u5730\u5e36\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u6709\u500b\u660e\u986f\u7684\u7f3a\u9ede\u662f\uff0c\u554f\u5238\u7684\u8a2d\u8a08\u53ea\u5141\u8a313\u7a2e\u72c0\u6cc1\uff0c<br \/>\n\u800c\u4f01\u696d\u7684\u7d93\u71df\u6709\u5f88\u591a\u4e3b\u89c0\u7684\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u6027\u3002<br \/>\n\u6bd4\u65b9\u8aaa\uff0c\u5b58\u8ca8\u8b8a\u5316\u53ea\u67092%\u4e4b\u5dee\uff0c\u4f46\u6709\u4e9b\u4eba\u89ba\u5f97\u6301\u5e73\uff0c\u6709\u4e9b\u4eba\u5247\u89ba\u5f97\u4e0a\u5347\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u53e6\u4e00\u500b\u554f\u984c\u662f\uff0c\u4eba\u5011\u5728\u586b\u5beb\u9019\u985e\u554f\u5238\u6642\uff0c<br \/>\n\u901a\u5e38\u6703\u53d7\u5230\u60c5\u7dd2\u8207 \u8fd1\u671f\u7d93\u9a57 \u5f71\u97ff\uff0c\u901a\u5e38\u6703\u8da8\u65bc\u6a02\u89c0\u4f30\u8a08\u3002<br \/>\n\u53ef\u4ee5\u89c0\u5bdf\u5230\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u5728\u91d1\u878d\u6d77\u562f\u6642\u671f\uff0cISM\u6307\u6578\u6700\u4f4e\u4e5f\u53ea\u523032.9\uff0c<br \/>\n\u9019\u4ee3\u8868\u5373\u4f7f\u4e00\u7247\u4e0d\u666f\u6c23\uff0c100\u500b\u4eba\u4e2d\u4ecd\u670966\u500b\u4eba\u9078\u64c7\u6301\u5e73\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>2. \u5047\u8a2d\u554f\u5238\u7d50\u679c\u80fd\u53cd\u6620\u51fa\u7522\u696d\u5be6\u969b\u7684\u666f\u6c23\u597d\u58de\u589e\u6e1b\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u4e09\u9078\u4e00\u7684\u554f\u5238\u9084\u6709\u53e6\u4e00\u500b\u7f3a\u9ede\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u5b83\u7121\u6cd5\u53cd\u6620\u5e45\u5ea6\uff0c<br \/>\n\u6bd4\u65b9\u8aaa\u5927\u96c4\u548c\u963f\u798f\u90fd\u9078\u64c7\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u4f46\u5927\u96c4\u9032\u6b6530\u5206\uff0c\u963f\u798f\u53ea\u9032\u6b655\u5206\uff0c<br \/>\n\u4f46\u6700\u5f8c\u7d50\u679c\u5c31\u53ea\u6703\u8a18\u4e0b2\u500b\u4eba\u90fd\u9078\u4e0a\u5347\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u53e6\u5916\uff0c\u5b83\u53d7\u5230\u57fa\u671f\u6240\u5f71\u97ff\uff0c\u6bd4\u65b9\u5b9c\u975c\u4e0a\u6b21\u8003\u4e86100\u5206\uff0c\u9019\u6b21\u5979\u5c31\u5f88\u96e3\u9078\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c<\/p>\n<p>\u4ee5\u4f01\u696d\u4f86\u8aaa\uff0c\u6bd4\u65b9\u8aaa\uff0c\u4e0a\u500b\u6708\u5b58\u8ca8\u9a5f\u589e\uff0c\u9019\u500b\u6708\u6bd4\u4e0a\u500b\u6708\u597d\u4e00\u4e9b\uff0c<br \/>\n\u4f46\u4ecd\u662f\u5b58\u8ca8\u904e\u591a\uff0c\u9019\u6642\u5019\u6307\u6578\u53cd\u6620\u7684\u5c31\u4e0d\u898b\u5f97\u662f\u771f\u5be6\u7684\u72c0\u6cc1\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>3. \u5047\u8a2d\u6307\u6578\u80fd\u53cd\u6620\u7522\u696d\u666f\u6c23\u7684\u597d\u58de\uff0c\u4e26\u4e14\u666f\u6c23\u6703\u53cd\u6620\u5728\u80a1\u7968\u7684\u50f9\u683c\u4e0a\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u6240\u6709\u6307\u6a19\u90fd\u6703\u9047\u5230\u540c\u6a23\u7684\u554f\u984c\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u6307\u6a19\u80fd\u5426\u53cd\u6620\u5230\u80a1\u50f9\uff0c<br \/>\n\u4f60\u53ef\u4ee5\u8cb7\u5230\u4e00\u9593\u6307\u6a19\u5448\u73fe\u512a\u826f\u7684\u516c\u53f8\uff0c\u4f46\u6307\u6a19\u512a\u826f\u8207\u672a\u4f86\u4e0a\u6f32\u4e0d\u898b\u5f97\u6709\u95dc\u4fc2\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u7562\u7adf\u5373\u4f7f\u7b2c\u4e00\u6642\u9593\u77e5\u9053\u516c\u53f8\u5167\u90e8\u72c0\u6cc1\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e0d\u4ee3\u8868\u5c31\u80fd\u9810\u6e2c\u672a\u4f86\u80a1\u50f9\u8d70\u52e2\uff0c<br \/>\n\u5426\u5247\u6bcf\u500b\u516c\u53f8\u5167\u90e8\u4eba\u90fd\u6703\u662f\u81ea\u5df1\u5bb6\u80a1\u7968\u7684\u64cd\u4f5c\u9ad8\u624b\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4f46\u4e8b\u5be6\u4e0a\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u4e5f\u4e0d\u8ffd\u6c42100%\u7684\u6e96\u78ba\u7387\uff0c\u53ea\u8981\u5b83\u8db3\u4ee5\u7528\u4f86\u7372\u5229\u5c31\u597d\uff0c<br \/>\n\u4f46\u771f\u7684\u8fa6\u7684\u5230\u55ce?<\/p>\n<h2>\u7576ISM\u6307\u6578\u5927\u65bc50\u6642\uff0c\u672a\u4f86\u80a1\u50f9\u8f03\u5bb9\u6613\u4e0a\u6f32?<\/h2>\n<p>\u6e2c\u8a66\u7684\u76ee\u6a19\u67093\u7a2e<\/p>\n<p><strong>1. ISM\u6307\u6578\u5728\u540c\u671f\u8207\u672a\u4f86\u662f\u5426\u8207\u80a1\u50f9\u5448\u6b63\u76f8\u95dc?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u9019\u6708\u521d\u516c\u5e03\u4e0a\u500b\u6708\u7684\u63a1\u8cfc\u7d93\u7406\u4eba\u770b\u6cd5\uff0c<br \/>\n\u5148\u4e0d\u8ac7\u9810\u6e2c\u672a\u4f86\uff0c<br \/>\n\u5982\u679c\u9023\u7576\u6708\u80a1\u50f9\u90fd\u8ddf\u7d93\u7406\u4eba\u770b\u6cd5\u4e0d\u4e00\u6a23\uff0c\u90a3\u986f\u7136\u5c31\u6c92\u6709\u610f\u7fa9\u3002\u6bd4\u65b99\u6708\u521d\u516c\u5e038\u6708\u7684ISM\u6307\u6578\uff0c<br \/>\n\u5728\u4f60\u62ff\u4f86\u9810\u6e2c\u672a\u4f869\u6708\u4e00\u500b\u6708\u751a\u81f3\u66f4\u9577\u9060\u7684\u80a1\u50f9\u8b8a\u5316\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c<br \/>\n\u4f60\u61c9\u8a72\u5148\u770b\u770b8\u6708\u7684\u6f32\u8dcc\u5e45\u662f\u5426\u8207\u9019\u500b\u6307\u6578\u6709\u8db3\u5920\u7684\u95dc\u4fc2\u3002<br \/>\n\u5982\u679c\u5b83\u90238\u6708\u7684\u80a1\u50f9\u8b8a\u5316\u90fd\u6c92\u8fa6\u4e00\u81f4\u7684\u9810\u6e2c\uff0c\u90a3\u4f60\u600e\u9ebc\u671f\u5f85\u4ed6\u80fd\u9810\u6e2c9\u6708\u4ee5\u5f8c\u7684\u6578\u5b57\u5462?<\/p>\n<p><strong>2. ISM\u6307\u6578\u662f\u5426\u80fd\u9810\u6e2c\u672a\u4f86\u80a1\u50f9?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\u6709\uff0c<br \/>\n\u6307\u6578\u767c\u5e03\u7576\u4e0b\u7684\u80a1\u50f9\u8b8a\u5316\u3001\u6307\u6578\u5c0d\u672a\u4f86\u4e00\u500b\u6708\u80a1\u50f9\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\u3001\u6307\u6578\u5c0d\u672a\u4f863\u500b\u6708\u80a1\u50f9\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\u3002<br \/>\n\u9019\u908a\u9650\u65bc\u8cc7\u6599\uff0c\u53ea\u6e2c\u8a66\u5f8c\u9762\u5169\u9805\u6578\u64da\u7684\u7d50\u679c\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>3. ISM\u6307\u6578\u662f\u5426\u80fd\u8a55\u4f30\u672a\u4f86\u6ce2\u52d5?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u4e5f\u8a31\u5b83\u9810\u6e2c\u65b9\u5411\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u4e0d\u898b\u5f97\u6e96\u78ba\uff0c<br \/>\n\u7562\u7adfISM\u6307\u6578\u5927\u591a\u6642\u5019\u843d\u572850\u4e0a\u4e0b\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u614b\u5ea6\u6301\u5e73\uff0c<br \/>\n\u4f46\u7576\u770b\u6cd5\u5206\u6b67\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662fISM\u6307\u6578\u504f\u96e250\u5f88\u591a\u6642\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u662f\u5426\u76f8\u5c0d\u6ce2\u52d5\u8f03\u5927?<\/p>\n<h2>\u6e2c\u8a66\u7d50\u679c\uff1a<\/h2>\n<p><strong>1. \u7d50\u679c\u662f\u7121\u8ad6\u540c\u671f\u6216\u672a\u4f86\uff0cISM\u6307\u6578\u8207\u80a1\u50f9\u90fd\u00a0\u6c92\u6709\u660e\u986f\u7684\u6b63\u76f8\u95dc<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>2. \u5b83\u5c0d\u9810\u6e2c\u672a\u4f861\u500b\u6708\u7684\u80a1\u50f9\u00a0\u6c92\u6709\u5e6b\u52a9<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>3. ISM\u6307\u6578\u00a0\u7121\u6cd5\u9810\u6e2c\u6ce2\u52d5\u6027<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u6211\u5011\u62ff <b>\u9053\u74ca\u5de5\u696d\u6307\u6578<\/b> \u548c <b>S&amp;P500\u6307\u6578<\/b> \u9019\u5169\u500b\u6307\u6578\u505a\u6e2c\u8a66\uff0c<br \/>\n\u5be6\u969b\u4e0a\u6211\u9084\u6709\u6e2c\u53f0\u7a4d\u96fb\u7684\u9084\u539f\u6307\u6578\uff0c\u4f46\u7d50\u679c\u4e00\u6a23\u5f88\u5dee\u6240\u4ee5\u5c31\u4e0d\u653e\u4e0a\u4f86\u4e86\u3002<br \/>\n\u6578\u64da\u9577\u5ea6\u5176\u5be6\u6709\u52301948\u5e74\uff0c\u4f46\u9019\u9ebc\u4e45\u4ee5\u524d\u7d93\u6fdf\u7d50\u69cb\u5176\u5be6\u4e0d\u5927\u76f8\u540c\uff0c<br \/>\n\u6240\u4ee5\u6211\u53ea\u00a0<b>\u6e2c\u52301994\u5e749\u6708\u52302014\u5e748\u6708\uff0c\u517120\u5e74\u671f\u7684\u8cc7\u6599<\/b>\uff0c<br \/>\n\u4e2d\u9593\u4e3b\u8981\u6709\u7d93\u6b77\u904e\u7db2\u8def\u6ce1\u6cab\u8207\u91d1\u878d\u6d77\u562f\u3002<br \/>\n<b>\u8cc7\u6599\u4f7f\u7528\u6708\u8cc7\u6599<\/b>\u6578\u64da\uff0c\u8cc7\u6599\u4f86\u6e90\u7528CMONEY\u7684\u8cc7\u6599\u5eab\u6293\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>1. \u7d50\u679c\u662f\u7121\u8ad6\u540c\u671f\u6216\u672a\u4f86\uff0cISM\u6307\u6578\u8207\u80a1\u50f9\u90fd\u6c92\u6709\u660e\u986f\u7684\u6b63\u76f8\u95dc<\/strong><br \/>\n<a href=/index.html"http:\/\/wiki.mbalib.com\/zh-tw\/%E9%87%87%E8%B4%AD%E7%BB%8F%E7%90%86%E4%BA%BA%E6%8C%87%E6%95%B0\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\" data-wpel-link=\"external\">\u5927\u9678\u7684MBA\u767e\u79d1\u4e0a\u662f\u5beb\u5230<\/a>\uff0c\u6c92\u6709\u660e\u986f\u901a\u81a8\u6642\uff0c<br \/>\n\u5b83\u8207\u9053\u74ca\u6307\u6578\u7684\u4e00\u81f4\u6027\u9054\u523080.9%\uff0c<br \/>\n\u8207S&amp;P500\u7684\u4e00\u81f4\u6027\u9054\u523068.7%\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u9019\u500b\u767e\u79d1\u5beb\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u77e5\u8b58\u901a\u5e38\u90fd\u4e0d\u5927\u6e96\u78ba\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u9084\u662f\u5be6\u969b\u6e2c\u8a66\u4e00\u4e0b\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6e2c\u8a66\u6642\u9593\u662f 199409~201408\uff0c\u5171240\u500b\u6708\uff0c<br \/>\n\u4e00\u81f4\u6027\u7684\u5b9a\u7fa9\u662f\u5047\u8a2d\uff1a<br \/>\na. \u6307\u6578\u5927\u65bc\u7b49\u65bc50\u6642\uff0c\u80a1\u50f9\u50be\u5411\u4e0a\u6f32<br \/>\nb. \u6307\u6578\u5c0f\u65bc50\u6642\uff0c\u6307\u6578\u50be\u5411\u4e0b\u8dcc<\/p>\n<p>\u6e2c\u8a66\u7576\u6708\u4e00\u81f4\u6027\uff1a<\/p>\n<p>\u9053\u74ca\uff1a240\u500b\u6708\u4e2d\uff0c\u6709140\u500b\u6708\u4e00\u81f4\uff0c\u7d04 58.3%<br \/>\nS&amp;P\uff1a240\u500b\u6708\u4e2d\uff0c\u6709139\u500b\u6708\u4e00\u81f4\uff0c\u7d0457.9%<\/p>\n<p>\u9019\u500b\u6578\u5b57\u5e7e\u4e4e\u6c92\u6709\u660e\u986f\u9810\u6e2c\u80fd\u529b\uff0c<br \/>\n\u63a1\u8cfc\u7d93\u7406\u4eba\u63d0\u4f9b\u7684\u6307\u6578\u9023\u81ea\u5df1\u7576\u6708\u4efd\u7684\u80a1\u50f9\u90fd\u7121\u6cd5\u9810\u6e2c\uff0c\u90a3\u66f4\u5225\u63d0\u5c0d\u4e0b\u500b\u6708\u7684\u80a1\u50f9\u505a\u9810\u6e2c\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6e2c\u8a66\u9810\u6e2c\u4e0b\u500b\u6708\u80a1\u50f9\u4e00\u81f4\u6027\uff1a<\/p>\n<p>\u9053\u74ca\uff1a240\u500b\u6708\u4e2d\uff0c\u6709135\u500b\u6708\u4e00\u81f4\uff0c\u7d0456.2%<br \/>\nS&amp;P\uff1a240\u500b\u6708\u4e2d\uff0c\u6709137\u500b\u6708\u4e00\u81f4\uff0c\u7d0457.0%<\/p>\n<p>\u5982\u679c\u8aaa\u64f2\u9285\u677f\u662f50%\uff0c\u9019\u7d50\u679c\u4e5f\u76f8\u5dee\u4e0d\u9060\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>2. \u5b83\u5c0d\u9810\u6e2c\u672a\u4f861\u500b\u6708\u7684\u80a1\u50f9\u4e0a\u6f32\u6c92\u6709\u5e6b\u52a9<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u5982\u679cISM\u6307\u6578\u6709\u9810\u6e2c\u80fd\u529b\uff0c\u90a3\u6563\u5e03\u5716\u6703\u5448\u73fe\u4ee550\u70ba\u4e2d\u5fc3\uff0c\u7531\u5de6\u4e0b\u5230\u53f3\u4e0a\u7684\u659c\u7dda\u5206\u5e03\uff0c<br \/>\n\u4f46\u73fe\u5728\u770b\u8d77\u4f86\u4e26\u6c92\u6709\u660e\u986f\u8da8\u52e2\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u9053\u74ca\u6307\u6578\uff1a<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=/index.html"http:\/\/\/wp-content\/uploads\/20171206115504_36.jpg\" width=\"400\" height=\"261\" border=\"0\" \/><\/p>\n<p>S&amp;P500\u6307\u6578\uff1a<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=/index.html"http:\/\/\/wp-content\/uploads\/20171206115505_90.jpg\" width=\"400\" height=\"261\" border=\"0\" \/><\/p>\n<p><strong>3. ISM\u6307\u6578\u7121\u6cd5\u9810\u6e2c\u6ce2\u52d5\u6027<\/strong><br \/>\n\u5982\u679c\u5b83\u5c0d\u9810\u6e2c\u65b9\u5411\u6c92\u7528\uff0c\u4e5f\u8a31\u5c0d\u9810\u6e2c\u6ce2\u52d5\u6027\u6709\u7528\uff0c<br \/>\n\u9019\u6a23\u4e00\u4f86\u6563\u5e03\u5716\u6703\u5448\u73fe\u5de6\u4e0b\u5f80\u53f3\u4e0a\u7684\u4e00\u689d\u659c\u7dda\u72c0\u5206\u5e03\uff0c<br \/>\n\u4f46\u5f9e\u7d50\u679c\u4f86\u770b\u4e26\u6c92\u6709\u9019\u7a2e\u8da8\u52e2\u51fa\u73fe\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u9053\u74ca\u6307\u6578\uff1a<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=/index.html"http:\/\/\/wp-content\/uploads\/20171206115505_69.jpg\" width=\"400\" height=\"261\" border=\"0\" \/><\/p>\n<p>S&amp;P500\u6307\u6578\uff1a<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=/index.html"http:\/\/\/wp-content\/uploads\/20171206115506_58.jpg\" width=\"400\" height=\"261\" border=\"0\" \/><\/p>\n<h2>\u7d50\u8ad6\uff1a \u5c0d\u9810\u6e2c\u672a\u4f86\uff11\u500b\u6708\u7684\u80a1\u50f9\u4e0a\u6f32\u6c92\u6709\u5e6b\u52a9<\/h2>\n<p><strong>\u53ef\u80fd\u539f\u56e01. \u5927\u591a\u6578\u586b\u5beb\u554f\u5238\u8005\u90fd\u9078\u64c7\u6301\u5e73<\/strong><br \/>\n\u5927\u591a\u6578\u7684\u8cc7\u6599\u6703\u544a\u8a34\u4f60\uff0c\u7576ISM\u6307\u6578\u5927\u65bc50\u662f\u504f\u591a\u982d\uff0c\u5c0f\u65bc50\u662f\u504f\u7a7a\u982d<\/p>\n<p>\u4f46\u6301\u5e73\u7684\u72c0\u6cc1\u4ecd\u662f\u5c45\u591a\u591a\u6578\uff0c\u6307\u6578\u5e38\u5e38\u843d\u572850\u9644\u8fd1\uff0c<br \/>\n\u9019\u6a23\u8b93\u5b83\u5f88\u96e3\u6709\u660e\u986f\u7684\u9810\u6e2c\u80fd\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u5f88\u96e3\u8aaa\uff0cISM\u6307\u6578 53\u5230\u5e95\u662f\u504f\u591a\u982d\u9084\u662f\u6301\u5e73\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u53ef\u80fd\u539f\u56e02. \u6307\u6578\u5728\u5f88\u77ed\u7684\u6642\u9593\u5c31\u5df2\u7d93\u53cd\u6620\u5230\u50f9\u683c<\/strong><br \/>\n\u9019\u662f\u6548\u7387\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u7279\u6027\uff0c<br \/>\n\u5728\u6307\u6578\u767c\u5e03\u7684\u7576\u4e0b\u5e7e\u5c0f\u6642\u751a\u81f3\u4e4b\u524d\u5176\u5be6\u50f9\u683c\u65e9\u5df2\u53cd\u61c9\u5b8c\u7562\uff0c<br \/>\n\u6642\u9593\u4e0d\u8db3\u4e00\u500b\u6708\uff0c<\/p>\n<p>\u4f46\u5373\u4f7f\u767c\u5e03\u6307\u6578\u7684\u7576\u4e0b\u6709\u53cd\u61c9\u50f9\u683c\u885d\u64ca\uff0c<br \/>\n\u4f46\u4e00\u500b\u6708\u5f8c\u82e5\u770b\u4e0d\u51fa\u7576\u6642\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\uff0c<br \/>\n\u986f\u7136\u4ee3\u8868\u9019\u500b\u6307\u6a19\u4e26\u6c92\u6709\u9810\u6e2c\u4e2d\u9577\u671f\u8da8\u52e2\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u7562\u7adf\u5b83\u9023\u7576\u6708\u90fd\u7121\u6cd5\u6e96\u78ba\u53cd\u6620\uff0c\u66f4\u4f55\u6cc1\u9810\u6e2c\u4e0b\u500b\u6708\u5462?<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u7121\u6cd5\u9810\u6e2c\u672a\u4f86\u4e0a\u6f32\uff0c\u4f46\u53ef\u4ee5\u907f\u958b\u672a\u4f86\u5927\u8dcc<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u7576\u6307\u6578\u9023\u7e8c3\u500b\u6708\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u4ee3\u8868\u666f\u6c23\u8f49\u5411\u591a\u982d?<br \/>\n\u9019\u662f\u66fe\u7d93\u5728\u66f8\u4e0a\u770b\u5230\u7684\u53e6\u4e00\u7a2e\u64cd\u4f5c\u6cd5<\/p>\n<p>\u5be6\u6e2c\u7d50\u679c\u662f\u7e3e\u6548\u6bd4\u8cb7\u9032\u6301\u6709\u5927\u76e4\u5dee\uff0c<\/p>\n<p>\u4f46\u7e3e\u6548\u8f03\u5e73\u6ed1\uff0c\u9806\u5229\u907f\u958b2000\u5e74\u7db2\u8def\u6ce1\u6cab\u548c2008\u5e74\u91d1\u878d\u6d77\u562f<br \/>\n\u6709\u5169\u7a2e\u64cd\u4f5c\u65b9\u5f0f\u8a55\u4f30\u9019\u7b56\u7565\uff1a<br \/>\n1. \u5728\u9023\u7e8c3\u500b\u6708\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u4e14\u7686\u5927\u65bc50\u6642\u8cb7\u9032\u76f8\u95dc\u6307\u6578\u4e26\u6301\u6709\uff0c<br \/>\n\u9023\u7e8c3\u500b\u6708\u4e0b\u964d\u6642\u5247\u8ce3\u51fa\u51fa\u5834\uff0c\u4fdd\u6301\u7a7a\u624b\u3002<br \/>\n. \u540c\u4e0a\uff0c\u4f46\u53ea\u6301\u67091\u500b\u6708\u5c31\u51fa\u5834\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u4f86\u770b\u770b \u9053\u74ca\u6307\u6578\u5831\u916c\u7387\uff1a<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>1. \u5728\u9023\u7e8c3\u500b\u6708\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u4e14\u6307\u6578\u572850\u4ee5\u4e0a\u6642\u8cb7\u9032\u76f8\u95dc\u6307\u6578\u4e26\u6301\u6709\uff0c\u9023\u7e8c3\u500b\u6708\u4e0b\u964d\u6642\u5247\u51fa\u5834<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u7d2f\u7a4d\u5831\u916c\uff1a20\u5e74\u4e0d\u8003\u616e\u8907\u5229\uff0c\u7d2f\u7a4d\u5831\u916c 56.78% \u5e73\u5747\u5831\u916c2.84%\u548c\u9280\u884c\u5dee\u4e0d\u591a\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u76f4\u63a5\u770b\u5716\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u6309\u9019\u500b\u7b56\u7565\u548c\u9053\u74ca\u540c\u671f\u76f8\u6bd4\uff0c\u552f\u4e00\u7684\u5dee\u5225\u5c31\u53ea\u662f\u907f\u958b2008\u5e74\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u6d77\u562f\u5427\u3002<br \/>\n\u9053\u74ca\u90fd\u5347\u523017000\u9ede\u4e86\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4f7f\u7528\u9019\u500b\u7b56\u7565\uff0c\u9084\u6703\u57286500\u9ede\u5f98\u5f8a\u3002<br \/>\n\u4f46\u7e3e\u6548\u66f2\u7dda\u7684\u78ba\u975e\u5e38\u7684\u5e73\u6ed1\u3002<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=/index.html"http:\/\/\/wp-content\/uploads\/20171206115507_14.jpg\" width=\"400\" height=\"261\" border=\"0\" \/><\/p>\n<p><strong>2. \u53ea\u6301\u67091\u500b\u6708<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u7d2f\u7a4d\u5831\u916c\uff1a20\u5e74\u4e0d\u8003\u616e\u8907\u5229\uff0c\u7d2f\u7a4d\u5831\u916c+35.4%\u00a0\u00a0\u5e73\u5747\u7d041.77% \u5927\u6982\u653e\u9280\u884c\u5dee\u4e0d\u591a<br \/>\n\u4ea4\u6613\u6b21\u6578\uff1a29\u500b\u6708\uff0c\u6a23\u672c\u6709\u9ede\u5c11<br \/>\n\u52dd\u7387\uff1a69%<\/p>\n<p>\u540c\u6a23\u7b56\u7565\u7528\u57281941~1994\u5e74\u5831\u916c\u4e5f\u4e0d\u600e\u9ebc\u6a23 (\u517132.84%\uff0c\u6bcf\u5e74\u4e0d\u52301%)\u3002<br \/>\n\u548c\u9053\u74ca\u540c\u671f\u76f8\u6bd4\u7684\u8a71\uff0c\u5b83\u7b49\u65bc\u53ea\u4e0a\u5347\u52305800\u9ede\uff0c\u4e0d\u904e\u540c\u6a23\u7e3e\u6548\u66f2\u7dda\u5f88\u5e73\u6ed1\u3002<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=/index.html"http:\/\/\/wp-content\/uploads\/20171206115508_94.jpg\" width=\"400\" height=\"261\" border=\"0\" \/><\/p>\n<p>\u5b83\u80fd\u5e6b\u4f60\u907f\u958b\u50cf2000\u5e74\u7db2\u8def\u6ce1\u6cab\u30012008\u5e74\u91d1\u878d\u6d77\u562f\uff0c<br \/>\n\u7576\u7136\u9019\u4e2d\u9593\u4e0d\u514d\u4e5f\u8981\u4ed8\u51fa\u4e00\u4e9b\u4ee3\u50f9\uff0c<br 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