{"id":46199,"date":"2023-01-05T18:10:57","date_gmt":"2023-01-05T10:10:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/\/?p=46199"},"modified":"2023-04-26T10:40:27","modified_gmt":"2023-04-26T02:40:27","slug":"howard-marks-guru","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/\/howard-marks-guru\/","title":{"rendered":"\u970d\u83ef\u00b7\u99ac\u514b\u65af &#8211; \u50f9\u503c\u6295\u8cc7\u5927\u5e2b\u300b\u5168\u7403\u4e0d\u826f\u8cc7\u7522\u6700\u5927\u8cb7\u5bb6"},"content":{"rendered":"<!-- \/367108978\/Rich01_PC_up_728x90 -->\n\t<div class='div-gpt-ad-css' id='div-gpt-ad-1564472272479-0' style='width: 728px; height: 90px;'>\n\t  <script>\n\t\tgoogletag.cmd.push(function() { googletag.display('div-gpt-ad-1564472272479-0'); });\n\t  <\/script>\n\t<\/div><p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-46200\" src=/index.html"https:\/\/\/wp-content\/uploads\/20230102171646_52.jpg\" alt=\"\u50f9\u503c\u6295\u8cc7\u5927\u5e2b\u970d\u83ef\u99ac\u514b\u65af\" width=\"1557\" height=\"815\" srcset=\"https:\/\/\/wp-content\/uploads\/20230102171646_52.jpg 1557w, https:\/\/\/wp-content\/uploads\/20230102171646_52-1536x804.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1557px) 100vw, 1557px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>\u970d\u83ef\u00b7\u99ac\u514b\u65af\u662f\u70ba\u5168\u7403\u77e5\u540d\u7684<a href=/index.html"https:\/\/\/what-is-value-investing\/\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u50f9\u503c\u6295\u8cc7<\/a>\u5927\u5e2b\uff0c\u4ed6\u6700\u53d7\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u95dc\u6ce8\u7684\u4e00\u9ede\u5c31\u662f\u4ed6\u5e7e\u4e4e\u6bcf\u5b63\u90fd\u6703\u767c\u8868\u4e00\u7bc7\u300c\u6295\u8cc7\u5099\u5fd8\u9304\u300d\u7d66\u5ba2\u6236\uff0c\u88e1\u9762\u6703\u5206\u4eab\u4ed6\u5c0d\u5e02\u5834\u6700\u65b0\u7684\u770b\u6cd5\u8207\u898b\u89e3\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u9023\u80a1\u795e\u5df4\u83f2\u7279\u90fd\u8aaa\u4ed6\u7684\u96fb\u5b50\u90f5\u4ef6\u6709\u8a02\u95b1\u99ac\u514b\u65af\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u5099\u5fd8\u9304\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u770b\u5230\u5099\u5fd8\u9304\u6709\u66f4\u65b0\uff0c\u4ed6\u6703\u7acb\u5373\u9ede\u95b1\uff0c\u53ef\u898b\u5177\u6709\u9ad8\u5ea6\u7684\u53c3\u8003\u50f9\u503c\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5e02\u5834\u5148\u751f\u81ea\u5df1\u4e5f\u6709\u770b\u904e\u6578\u7bc7\u970d\u83ef\u99ac\u514b\u601d\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u5099\u5fd8\u9304\uff0c\u89ba\u5f97\u6bcf\u4e00\u7bc7\u90fd\u50cf\u662f\u5728\u95b1\u8b80\u6295\u8cc7\u66f8\u7c4d\u4e00\u6a23\uff0c\u6703\u6307\u51fa\u5e02\u5834\u8207\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u7684\u4e00\u4e9b\u76f2\u9ede\uff0c\u76f8\u7576\u503c\u5f97\u95b1\u8b80\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u672c\u6587\u5e02\u5834\u5148\u751f\u4ecb\u7d39\u970d\u83ef\u99ac\u514b\u65af\u7684\u751f\u5e73\u3001\u8077\u696d\u751f\u6daf\u3001\u6295\u8cc7\u54f2\u5b78\u53ca\u7e3e\u6548\u8868\u73fe\uff0c\u4e26\u4e14\u5206\u4eab\u8981\u5230\u54ea\u88e1\u770b\u4ed6\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u5099\u5fd8\u9304\u53ca\u4ecb\u7d39\u4ed6\u7684\u53c3\u8003\u66f8\u55ae\u3002<\/p>\n<p><!--more--><\/p>\n<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_64 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-grey ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\">\u672c\u6587\u5e02\u5834\u5148\u751f\u6703\u544a\u8a34\u4f60\uff1a<\/p>\n<label for=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6611edb372fe5\" class=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-label\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/label><input type=\"checkbox\"  id=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6611edb372fe5\"  aria-label=\"Toggle\" \/><nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=/index.html"https:\/\/\/howard-marks-guru\/#%E9%9C%8D%E8%8F%AF%C2%B7%E9%A6%AC%E5%85%8B%E6%96%AFHoward_Marks%E6%98%AF%E8%AA%B0%EF%BC%9F\" title=\"\u970d\u83ef\u00b7\u99ac\u514b\u65af(Howard Marks)\u662f\u8ab0\uff1f\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u970d\u83ef\u00b7\u99ac\u514b\u65af(Howard Marks)\u662f\u8ab0\uff1f<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=/index.html"https:\/\/\/howard-marks-guru\/#%E9%9C%8D%E8%8F%AF%E9%A6%AC%E5%85%8B%E6%96%AF%E7%9A%84%E6%8A%95%E8%B3%87%E5%93%B2%E5%AD%B8\" title=\"\u970d\u83ef\u99ac\u514b\u65af\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u54f2\u5b78\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u970d\u83ef\u99ac\u514b\u65af\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u54f2\u5b78<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=/index.html"https:\/\/\/howard-marks-guru\/#%E6%A9%A1%E6%A8%B9%E8%B3%87%E6%9C%AC%E7%AE%A1%E7%90%86%E7%B8%BE%E6%95%88%E8%A1%A8%E7%8F%BE\" title=\"\u6a61\u6a39\u8cc7\u672c\u7ba1\u7406\u7e3e\u6548\u8868\u73fe\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u6a61\u6a39\u8cc7\u672c\u7ba1\u7406\u7e3e\u6548\u8868\u73fe<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-4\" href=/index.html"https:\/\/\/howard-marks-guru\/#%E9%9C%8D%E8%8F%AF%E9%A6%AC%E5%85%8B%E6%96%AF%E7%9A%84%E6%8A%95%E8%B3%87%E5%82%99%E5%BF%98%E9%8C%84%E5%93%AA%E8%A3%A1%E7%9C%8B%EF%BC%9F\" title=\"\u970d\u83ef\u99ac\u514b\u65af\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u5099\u5fd8\u9304\u54ea\u88e1\u770b\uff1f\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u970d\u83ef\u99ac\u514b\u65af\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u5099\u5fd8\u9304\u54ea\u88e1\u770b\uff1f<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-5\" href=/index.html"https:\/\/\/howard-marks-guru\/#%E5%BF%AB%E9%80%9F%E9%87%8D%E9%BB%9E%E6%95%B4%E7%90%86%EF%BC%9A%E9%9C%8D%E8%8F%AF%E9%A6%AC%E5%85%8B%E6%96%AF%E7%B5%A6%E6%88%91%E5%80%91%E7%9A%84%E5%95%9F%E7%99%BC\" title=\"\u5feb\u901f\u91cd\u9ede\u6574\u7406\uff1a\u970d\u83ef\u99ac\u514b\u65af\u7d66\u6211\u5011\u7684\u555f\u767c\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u5feb\u901f\u91cd\u9ede\u6574\u7406\uff1a\u970d\u83ef\u99ac\u514b\u65af\u7d66\u6211\u5011\u7684\u555f\u767c<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-6\" href=/index.html"https:\/\/\/howard-marks-guru\/#%E9%9C%8D%E8%8F%AF%E9%A6%AC%E5%85%8B%E6%96%AF%E5%8F%83%E8%80%83%E6%9B%B8%E5%96%AE\" title=\"\u970d\u83ef\u99ac\u514b\u65af\u53c3\u8003\u66f8\u55ae\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u970d\u83ef\u99ac\u514b\u65af\u53c3\u8003\u66f8\u55ae<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%E9%9C%8D%E8%8F%AF%C2%B7%E9%A6%AC%E5%85%8B%E6%96%AFHoward_Marks%E6%98%AF%E8%AA%B0%EF%BC%9F\"><\/span>\u970d\u83ef\u00b7\u99ac\u514b\u65af(Howard Marks)\u662f\u8ab0\uff1f<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li>\u51fa\u751f\uff1a1946\/4\/23<\/li>\n<li>\u51fa\u751f\u5730\uff1a\u7f8e\u570b\u7d10\u7d04<\/li>\n<li>\u5b78\u6b77\uff1a \u8cd3\u5dde\u5927\u5b78\u83ef\u9813\u5546\u5b78\u9662\u3001\u829d\u52a0\u54e5\u5927\u5b78\u5de5\u5546\u7ba1\u7406\u78a9\u58eb<\/li>\n<li>\u73fe\u4efb\uff1a\u6a61\u6a39\u8cc7\u672c\u7ba1\u7406\u5275\u59cb\u4eba\u517c\u8463\u4e8b\u9577<\/li>\n<li>\u6210\u5c31\uff1a\u6a61\u6a39\u8cc7\u672c\u76ee\u524d\u70ba\u5168\u7403\u4e0d\u826f\u8cc7\u7522\u6700\u5927\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\uff0c\u81ea1995\u6210\u7acb\u81f32022\/2\u6b62\uff0c\u6a61\u6a39\u8cc7\u672c\u5e73\u5747\u5e74\u5316\u56de\u5831\u7387\u9ad8\u905418.8%\uff0c\u76f8\u6bd4\u540c\u671f\u7f8e\u80a1S&amp;P 500\u7684\u56de\u5831\u70ba10.4%<\/li>\n<li>\u8457\u4f5c\uff1a\u300a<a href=/index.html"https:\/\/\/blog-post_28-3\/\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u6295\u8cc7\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u4e8b\uff1a\u4e00\u672c\u80a1\u795e\u5df4\u83f2\u7279\u8b80\u4e86\u5169\u904d\u7684\u66f8<\/a>\u300b\u3001\u300a<a href=/index.html"https:\/\/www.books.com.tw\/products\/0010810203?sloc=main\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\" data-wpel-link=\"external\">\u638c\u63e1\u5e02\u5834\u9031\u671f\uff1a\u50f9\u503c\u6295\u8cc7\u5927\u5e2b\u970d\u83ef\uff0e\u99ac\u514b\u65af\u6559\u4f60\u770b\u5c0d\u5e02\u5834\u6642\u6a5f\uff0c\u63d0\u9ad8\u6295\u8cc7\u52dd\u7b97<\/a>\u300b<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">\u5716\uff1a\u970d\u83ef\u00b7\u99ac\u514b\u65af<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=/index.html"https:\/\/\/wp-content\/uploads\/20230102172014_80.jpg\" alt=\"\u970d\u83ef\u99ac\u514b\u65af\" width=\"1557\" height=\"1103\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">\u5716\u7247\u4f86\u6e90\uff1aForbes<\/p>\n<h3 style=\"text-align: left;\">\u6210\u9577\u80cc\u666f\uff1a\u51fa\u751f\u65bc\u4e00\u500b\u5e73\u51e1\u7684\u7336\u592a\u5bb6\u5ead\uff0c\u9760\u81ea\u5df1\u52aa\u529b\u8003\u4e0a\u540d\u6821<\/h3>\n<p>\u970d\u83ef\u99ac\u514b\u65af\u57281946\u5e74\u51fa\u751f\u65bc\u7f8e\u570b\u7d10\u7d04\u4e00\u500b\u5e73\u51e1\u7684\u7336\u592a\u5bb6\u5ead\uff0c\u4ed6\u7684\u5bb6\u5ead\u4e26\u4e0d\u5bcc\u88d5\uff0c\u4f4f\u5728\u4e00\u500b\u5169\u623f\u7684\u5c0f\u516c\u5bd3\u4e2d\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6191\u85c9\u7684\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u52aa\u529b\uff0c\u970d\u83ef\u99ac\u514b\u65af\u8003\u53d6\u4e86\u8cd3\u5dde\u5927\u5b78\u83ef\u9813\u5546\u5b78\u9662\uff0c\u4e3b\u4fee\u91d1\u878d\uff0c\u526f\u4fee\u65e5\u672c\u7814\u7a76\u3002<\/p>\n<p>23\u6b72\u6642\uff0c\u4ed6\u53c8\u62ff\u5230\u829d\u52a0\u54e5\u5927\u5b78\u7684\u5de5\u5546\u7ba1\u7406\u78a9\u58eb\uff0c\u4e3b\u4fee\u6703\u8a08\u8ddf\u884c\u92b7\uff0c\u6191\u85c9\u4ed6\u512a\u7570\u7684\u6210\u7e3e\uff0c\u4ed6\u9084\u62ff\u5230George Hay Brown Prize\uff0c\u9019\u662f\u829d\u52a0\u54e5\u5927\u5b78\u5546\u5b78\u9662\u6bcf\u5e74\u6703\u9812\u7d66\u5728\u884c\u92b7\u65b9\u9762\u8868\u73fe\u6700\u512a\u7570\u7684\u5b78\u751f\u7684\u734e\u9805\u3002<\/p>\n<h3>\u8077\u696d\u751f\u6daf\uff1a26\u5e74\u8c50\u5bcc\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u696d\u7d93\u9a57\uff0c\u5f8c\u4f86\u5275\u8fa6\u4e86\u6a61\u6a39\u8cc7\u672c\u7ba1\u7406<\/h3>\n<p>\u7814\u7a76\u6240\u7562\u696d\u5f8c\uff0c\u970d\u83ef\u99ac\u514b\u65af\u7b2c\u4e00\u4efd\u5de5\u4f5c\u9032\u5165\u4e86\u82b1\u65d7\u96c6\u5718\uff0c\u9019\u4efd\u5de5\u4f5c\u4ed6\u505a\u4e8616\u5e74\uff0c<\/p>\n<p>\u4e4b\u5f8c\u4ed6\u5230\u8cc7\u7522\u7ba1\u7406\u516c\u53f8TCW Group\u4e5f\u505a\u4e8610\u5e74\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u8ca0\u8cac<a href=/index.html"https:\/\/\/what-is-convertible-bonds\/\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u53ef\u8f49\u50b5<\/a>\u53ca<a href=/index.html"https:\/\/\/high-yield-bond-wrong-1\/\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u9ad8\u6536\u76ca\u50b5<\/a>\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5728\u64c1\u670926\u5e74\u8c50\u5bcc\u7684\u7d93\u6b77\u5f8c\uff0c\u4ed6\u8207\u5176\u4ed6\u56db\u4f4d\u540c\u4e8b\u96e2\u8077\u4e00\u8d77\u5275\u8fa6\u4e86\u6a61\u6a39\u8cc7\u672c\u7ba1\u7406(Oaktree Capital Management)\u3002<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>1969~1978 \u64d4\u4efb\u82b1\u65d7\u96c6\u5718\u80a1\u7968\u7814\u7a76\u54e1\uff0c\u4e26\u6210\u70ba\u7814\u7a76\u90e8\u9580\u7e3d\u76e3\u3002<\/li>\n<li>1978~1985 \u64d4\u4efb\u82b1\u65d7\u96c6\u5718\u526f\u7e3d\u88c1\uff0c\u8ca0\u8cac\u53ef\u8f49\u50b5\u548c\u9ad8\u6536\u76ca\u50b5\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u7d44\u5408\u7d93\u7406\u4eba\u3002<\/li>\n<li>1985~1995 \u96e2\u958b\u82b1\u65d7\uff0c\u52a0\u5165\u8cc7\u7522\u7ba1\u7406\u516c\u53f8TCW Group\uff0c\u64d4\u4efb\u53ef\u8f49\u50b5\u53ca\u9ad8\u6536\u76ca\u50b5\u6295\u8cc7\u4e3b\u7ba1\u3002<\/li>\n<li>1995 \u8207\u5176\u4ed6\u56db\u540d\u540c\u4e8b\u4e00\u8d77\u96e2\u958bTCW Group\uff0c\u6210\u7acb\u6a61\u6a39\u8cc7\u672c\u7ba1\u7406\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%E9%9C%8D%E8%8F%AF%E9%A6%AC%E5%85%8B%E6%96%AF%E7%9A%84%E6%8A%95%E8%B3%87%E5%93%B2%E5%AD%B8\"><\/span>\u970d\u83ef\u99ac\u514b\u65af\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u54f2\u5b78<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>\u95dc\u65bc\u970d\u83ef\u99ac\u514b\u65af\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u54f2\u5b78\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u5148\u751f\u6574\u7406\u51fa\u4ee5\u4e0b4\u500b\u91cd\u9ede\u3002<\/p>\n<h3>1. \u4e0d\u8207\u7fa4\u773e\u884c\u52d5\u4e00\u81f4<\/h3>\n<p>\u99ac\u514b\u65af\u8a8d\u70ba\u7fa4\u773e\u7684\u5fc3\u614b\u5c31\u50cf\u4e00\u500b\u9418\u64fa\u4e00\u6a23\uff0c\u5728\u6a02\u89c0\u8ddf\u60b2\u89c0\u4e4b\u9593\u64fa\u76ea\u3001\u5728\u8f15\u4fe1\u8ddf\u591a\u7591\u4e4b\u9593\u64fa\u76ea\u3001\u5728\u5bb3\u6015\u932f\u5931\u6a5f\u6703\u8ddf\u5bb3\u6015\u8667\u9322\u4e4b\u9593\u64fa\u76ea\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u9019\u4e9b\u64fa\u76ea\u6703\u8b93\u4ed6\u5011\u5728\u9ad8\u50f9\u6642\u8cb7\u9032\uff0c\u4e14\u5728\u4f4e\u50f9\u6642\u8ce3\u51fa\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u8207\u4ed6\u5011\u7684\u884c\u52d5\u4e00\u81f4\uff0c\u90a3\u9ebc\u5fc5\u5b9a\u5f8c\u60a3\u7121\u7aae\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u53cd\u4e4b\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u5728\u6975\u7aef\u7684\u60c5\u6cc1\u4e0b\u63a1\u53d6\u53cd\u5411\u7b56\u7565\uff0c\u80fd\u5920\u5e6b\u52a9\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u907f\u958b\u8667\u640d\u3002<\/p>\n<h3>2. \u638c\u63e1\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5c64\u601d\u8003<\/h3>\n<p>\u970d\u83ef\u99ac\u514b\u65af\u8aaa\uff1a\u300c\u4f60\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u505a\u8457\u8ddf\u5225\u4eba\u4e00\u6a23\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\uff0c\u4f46\u537b\u671f\u5f85\u8868\u73fe\u6bd4\u4ed6\u5011\u597d\u3002\u300d<\/p>\n<p>\u8981\u5728\u6295\u8cc7\u4e0a\u6210\u529f\uff0c\u5fc5\u9808\u8981\u77e5\u9053\u4e00\u4e9b\u300c\u548c\u5225\u4eba\u4e0d\u4e00\u6a23\u7684\u4e8b\u300d\uff0c\u610f\u601d\u662f\u8aaa\uff0c\u5fc5\u9808\u8981\u6bd4\u5c08\u696d\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u66f4\u6709\u6d1e\u898b\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4e00\u822c\u4eba\u8ddf\u5c08\u696d\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u6700\u5927\u7684\u5dee\u5225\u9664\u4e86\u8cc7\u91d1\u5916\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u8cc7\u8a0a\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u514b\u670d\u4e86\u8cc7\u8a0a\u843d\u5dee\uff0c\u90a3\u4f60\u7684\u5c0d\u624b\u7bc4\u570d\u5c31\u7e2e\u5c0f\u5f88\u591a\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u970d\u83ef\u99ac\u514b\u65af\u5728\u4ed6\u7684\u66f8\u4e2d\u6709\u500b\u8457\u540d\u7684\u539f\u5247\u53eb\u505a\u300c\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5c64\u601d\u8003\u300d\uff0c<strong>\u638c\u63e1\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5c64\u601d\u8003\uff0c\u64c1\u6709\u9ad8\u5ea6\u7684\u6d1e\u5bdf\u529b\u5c31\u662f\u6253\u6557\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u95dc\u9375<\/strong>\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6240\u8b02<strong>\u7b2c\u4e00\u5c64\u601d\u8003<\/strong>\u7c21\u55ae\u4e14\u819a\u6dfa\uff0c\u5e7e\u4e4e\u6bcf\u500b\u4eba\u90fd\u53ef\u4ee5\u505a\u5f97\u5230\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff1a\u9019\u5bb6\u516c\u53f8\u672a\u4f86\u7684\u524d\u666f\u5f88\u770b\u597d\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u80a1\u50f9\u61c9\u8a72\u6703\u4e0a\u6f32\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u800c<strong>\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5c64\u601d\u8003<\/strong>\u5247\u6bd4\u8f03\u6df1\u5165\u3001\u8907\u96dc\u800c\u4e14\u8fc2\u8ff4\uff0c\u9700\u8981\u8003\u616e\u5f88\u591a\u4e8b\u60c5\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\uff1a<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u672a\u4f86\u53ef\u80fd\u7522\u751f\u7684\u7d50\u679c\u6703\u843d\u5728\u54ea\u4e9b\u7bc4\u570d\uff1f<\/li>\n<li>\u6211\u8a8d\u70ba\u53ef\u80fd\u6703\u51fa\u73fe\u54ea\u500b\u7d50\u679c\uff1f<\/li>\n<li>\u6211\u7684\u60f3\u6cd5\u6b63\u78ba\u7684\u6a5f\u7387\u6709\u591a\u5c11\uff1f<\/li>\n<li>\u5927\u5bb6\u6709\u54ea\u4e9b\u5e02\u5834\u5171\u8b58\uff1f<\/li>\n<li>\u6211\u7684\u60f3\u6cd5\u8ddf\u5e02\u5834\u5171\u8b58\u6709\u591a\u5927\u5dee\u7570\uff1f<\/li>\n<li>\u8cc7\u7522\u7684\u5e02\u50f9\u8ddf\u5e02\u5834\u5171\u8b58\u8a8d\u70ba\u7684\u50f9\u683c\u6709\u591a\u5927\u5dee\u7570\uff1f<\/li>\n<li>\u5e02\u5834\u5171\u8b58\u7684\u50f9\u683c\u662f\u904e\u65bc\u6a02\u89c0\u9084\u662f\u60b2\u89c0\uff1f<\/li>\n<li>\u5982\u679c\u5e02\u5834\u5171\u8b58\u662f\u6b63\u78ba\u7684\uff0c\u90a3\u5c0d\u8cc7\u7522\u50f9\u683c\u6709\u4ec0\u9ebc\u5f71\u97ff\u5462\uff1f\u5982\u679c\u6211\u7684\u770b\u6cd5\u624d\u662f\u6b63\u78ba\u7684\uff0c\u53c8\u6703\u6709\u4ec0\u9ebc\u5f71\u97ff\u5462\uff1f<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<blockquote><p>\u5e02\u5834\u5148\u751f\u88dc\u5145\uff1a<\/p>\n<p>\u5373\u4f7f\u6211\u5011\u4e00\u7121\u6240\u77e5\uff0c\u53ea\u8981\u5206\u6563\u6295\u8cc7\u5e02\u5834\uff0c\u9577\u671f\u800c\u8a00\u53ef\u4ee5\u5f97\u5230\u5e02\u5834\u5e73\u5747\u5831\u916c\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4f46\u5982\u679c\u6211\u5011\u77e5\u9053\u5f88\u591a\uff0c\u4f46\u90fd\u662f\u5225\u4eba\u5df2\u7d93\u77e5\u9053\u7684\u4e8b\uff0c\u90a3\u9ebc\u9577\u671f\u800c\u8a00\u53ef\u80fd\u5831\u916c\u4e5f\u4e0d\u6703\u548c\u5e02\u5834\u5e73\u5747\u5dee\u592a\u591a\u3002\u539f\u56e0\u662f\u5982\u679c\u5225\u4eba\u5df2\u7d93\u77e5\u9053\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\uff0c\u901a\u5e38\u65e9\u5df2\u53cd\u61c9\u5728\u50f9\u683c\u4e0a\uff0c\u7121\u591a\u9918\u7684\u5229\u6f64\u53ef\u5716\uff0c\u53ea\u80fd\u5f97\u5230\u5408\u7406\u5831\u916c\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5982\u679c\u60f3\u8981\u8d85\u984d\u5831\u916c\uff0c\u90a3\u5c31\u5fc5\u9808\u77e5\u9053\u5225\u4eba\u4e0d\u77e5\u9053\u7684\u4e8b\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u5728\u4eba\u5011\u72af\u932f\u6642\u81ea\u5df1\u537b\u6b63\u78ba\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u9019\u975e\u5e38\u56f0\u96e3\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u4e5f\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u5176\u4ed6\u4eba\u90fd\u6b63\u78ba\uff0c\u53ea\u6709\u4f60\u932f\u8aa4\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u95dc\u65bc\u8d85\u984d\u5831\u916c\u53ef\u95b1\u8b80\uff1a<a href=/index.html"https:\/\/\/3-thoughts-on-excess-return\/\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u6709\u53d6\u5f97\u8d85\u984d\u5831\u916c\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u55ce\uff1f<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<h3>3. \u8981\u8070\u660e\u7684\u627f\u64d4\u98a8\u96aa<\/h3>\n<p>\u6295\u8cc7\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u6c92\u6709\u98a8\u96aa\uff0c\u4e00\u6d41\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u8ddf\u5176\u4ed6\u4eba\u7684\u5dee\u5225\u5728\u65bc\u627f\u64d4\u98a8\u96aa\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5982\u679c\u98a8\u96aa\u592a\u9ad8\uff0c\u96a8\u8457\u6642\u9593\u62c9\u9577\uff0c\u9020\u6210\u707d\u96e3\u7684\u6a5f\u7387\u5c31\u5927\u5e45\u589e\u52a0\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4f46\u5982\u679c\u8981\u964d\u4f4e\u98a8\u96aa\u5e36\u4f86\u7684\u50b7\u5bb3\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u8cb7\u4fdd\u96aa\uff0c\u662f\u8981\u4ed8\u51fa\u5f88\u9ad8\u4ee3\u50f9\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u7136\u800c\u8981\u6ce8\u610f\u7684\u662f\uff0c<strong>\u98a8\u96aa\u4e0d\u55ae\u55ae\u662f\u6307\u4e8b\u60c5\u672c\u8eab\uff0c\u4e5f\u53d6\u6c7a\u65bc\u6211\u5011\u300c\u627f\u64d4\u98a8\u96aa\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u300d<\/strong>\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8209\u500b\u4f8b\u5b50\uff0c\u6709\u500b\u6295\u8cc7\u53ef\u80fd\u6703\u6709\u9ad8\u5831\u916c\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u98a8\u96aa\u6975\u9ad8\uff0c\u800c\u4f60\u6c7a\u5b9a\u53ea\u7528\u6975\u5c11\u6bd4\u4f8b\u7684\u8cc7\u91d1\u6295\u5165\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u6574\u9ad4\u4f86\u8aaa\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u6295\u8cc7\u98a8\u96aa\u5f88\u9ad8\uff0c\u4f46\u5c0d\u4f60\u5e36\u4f86\u7684\u6700\u5927\u50b7\u5bb3\u662f\u53ef\u63a7\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u53cd\u4e4b\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u6709\u500b\u5f88\u5b89\u5168\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u537b\u7528\u932f\u627f\u64d4\u98a8\u96aa\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u4f7f\u7528\u904e\u5ea6\u7684\u69d3\u687f\uff0c\u6700\u5f8c\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u5e36\u4f86\u4e00\u5834\u707d\u96e3\uff0c\u50cf\u662f<a href=/index.html"https:\/\/\/4-lessons-from-ltcm\/\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">LTCM<\/a>\u5c31\u662f\u9019\u985e\u9ad8\u69d3\u687f\u800c\u53d7\u50b7\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\u3002<br \/>\n\u53ef\u95b1\u8b80\uff1a<a href=/index.html"https:\/\/\/4-lessons-from-ltcm\/\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">LTCM\u9577\u671f\u8cc7\u672c\u7ba1\u7406\u516c\u53f8\u4e8b\u4ef6\u89e3\u6790<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u970d\u83ef\u99ac\u514b\u65af\u5c0d\u65bc\u98a8\u96aa\u7684\u770b\u6cd5\u548c\u4e00\u822c\u4eba\u662f\u975e\u5e38\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4e00\u822c\u6703\u8a8d\u70ba\u6ce2\u52d5\u6027\u5c31\u662f\u98a8\u96aa\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4e00\u6a94\u80a1\u7968\u6ce2\u52d5\u6027\u5f88\u5927\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u79d1\u6280\u80a1\u5e38\u5e38\u4e0a\u6f32\u6216\u4e0b\u8dcc50%\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u5c31\u6703\u8a8d\u70ba\u5b83\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\u5f88\u5927\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4f46<strong>\u970d\u83ef\u99ac\u514b\u65af\u537b\u8a8d\u70ba\uff0c\u6ce2\u52d5\u7387\u4e26\u4e0d\u662f\u98a8\u96aa<\/strong>\uff0c\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u4e0d\u7528\u53bb\u95dc\u6ce8\u77ed\u671f\u7684\u6ce2\u52d5\u6027\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u8981\u770b\u9577\u671f\u7684\u6536\u76ca\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4ee5\u6a61\u6a39\u8cc7\u672c\u64c5\u9577\u7684\u56fa\u5b9a\u6536\u76ca\u6216\u4fe1\u8cb8\u9818\u57df\u4f86\u8aaa\uff0c\u6ce2\u52d5\u6027\u5c24\u5176\u7121\u95dc\u7dca\u8981\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5927\u591a\u6642\u5019\uff0c\u7576\u4f60\u8cfc\u8cb7\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u662f8%\u7684\u50b5\u5238\u6642\uff0c\u7121\u8ad6\u50b5\u5238\u50f9\u683c\u5728\u6b64\u671f\u9593\u4e0a\u6f32\u6216\u4e0b\u8dcc\uff0c\u4f60\u57fa\u672c\u90fd\u6703\u5728\u6574\u500b\u6295\u8cc7\u671f\u9593\u5167\u7372\u5f978%\u7684\u6536\u76ca\u7387\uff0c<br \/>\n\u552f\u4e00\u8981\u95dc\u5fc3\u7684\u53cd\u800c\u662f<a href=/index.html"https:\/\/\/bond-default-rate-count\/\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u9055\u7d04\u98a8\u96aa<\/a>\uff0c\u53ea\u8981\u50b5\u5238\u4e0d\u9055\u7d04\uff0c\u90a3\u9ebc\u4e2d\u9593\u50f9\u683c\u7684\u6ce2\u52d5\u90fd\u662f\u7121\u6240\u8b02\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>\u5e02\u5834\u5148\u751f\u63d0\u793a\uff1a\u5982\u4f55\u601d\u8003\u98a8\u96aa\uff1f<\/p>\n<p>\u8cc7\u7522\u7ba1\u7406\u8005\u5982\u5df4\u83f2\u7279\u3001\u970d\u83ef\u99ac\u514b\u601d\uff0c\u4ed6\u5011\u5c0d\u65bc\u98a8\u96aa\u7684\u5b9a\u7fa9\u90fd\u548c\u4e00\u822c\u4eba\u4e0d\u540c\uff0c\u5c0d\u4ed6\u5011\u4f86\u8aaa\uff0c\u6ce2\u52d5\u4e0d\u662f\u98a8\u96aa\uff0c\u53ea\u662f\u66ab\u6642\u6027\u7684\u50f9\u683c\u96dc\u8a0a\u3002\u5c0d\u4ed6\u5011\u4f86\u8aaa\uff0c\u53d6\u5f97\u6295\u8cc7\u5831\u916c\u662f\u4e00\u50cf\u4e8b\u696d\uff0c\u800c\u5831\u916c\u843d\u5f8c\u662f\u5c0e\u81f4\u4ed6\u5011\u8077\u6daf\u5931\u6557\u7684\u539f\u56e0\uff0c\u4e26\u4e0d\u662f\u98a8\u96aa\u5927\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4f46\u540c\u6a23\u662f\u6a5f\u69cb\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\uff0c\u50cf\u662f<a href=/index.html"https:\/\/\/bridgewater-associates-all-weather-strategy-0\/\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u6a4b\u6c34\u57fa\u91d1<\/a>\u3001\u8036\u9b6f\u5927\u5b78\u6821\u52d9\u57fa\u91d1\uff0c\u5c31\u66f4\u5584\u65bc\u7ba1\u7406\u6ce2\u52d5\u98a8\u96aa\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4e00\u500b\u8aaa\u6ce2\u52d5\u4e0d\u662f\u98a8\u96aa\uff0c\u4e00\u500b\u7ba1\u7406\u6ce2\u52d5\u98a8\u96aa\uff0c\u5230\u5e95\u8ab0\u5c0d\u8ab0\u932f\uff1f\u6211\u8a8d\u70ba\u5176\u5be6\u90fd\u6b63\u78ba\uff0c\u524d\u63d0\u662f\u53d6\u6c7a\u65bc\u4f60\u662f\u5426\u6e05\u695a\u98a8\u96aa\u5c0d\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u610f\u7fa9\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u4e86\u89e3\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\u627f\u53d7\u80fd\u529b\uff1f<\/p>\n<p>\u5df4\u83f2\u7279\u548c\u970d\u83ef\u99ac\u514b\u601d\uff0c\u5c0d\u6ce2\u52d5\u98a8\u96aa\u6709\u6975\u5927\u7684\u627f\u53d7\u80fd\u529b\uff0c\u53cd\u800c\u5831\u916c\u843d\u5f8c\u5c0d\u4ed6\u5011\u4eba\u751f\u624d\u662f\u6700\u5927\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\uff1b<\/p>\n<p>\u4f46\u5c0d\u4e00\u822c\u666e\u901a\u4eba\u4f86\u8aaa\uff0c\u6709\u9650\u7684\u751f\u547d\u9031\u671f\u5167\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u6703\u5e0c\u671b\u6ce2\u52d5\u98a8\u96aa\u662f\u5728\u81ea\u5df1\u627f\u53d7\u7bc4\u570d\u5167\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u4e00\u65e6\u8d85\u51fa\u627f\u53d7\u7bc4\u570d\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u5f88\u53ef\u80fd\u56e0\u70ba\u73fe\u5be6\u7d93\u6fdf\u6216\u8005\u500b\u4eba\u5fc3\u7406\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u800c\u8a8d\u8ce0\u7d50\u675f\u90e8\u4f4d\uff0c\u9019\u5c0d\u6211\u5011\u4eba\u751f\u624d\u662f\u6700\u5927\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6211\u8a8d\u70ba\u98a8\u96aa\u5c0d\u6bcf\u500b\u4eba\u610f\u7fa9\u90fd\u4e0d\u4e00\u6a23\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u4e0d\u5b58\u5728\u6a19\u6e96\u7b54\u6848\uff0c\u7ba1\u7406\u98a8\u96aa\u7684\u95dc\u9375\u4e26\u4e0d\u5728\u65bc\u9078\u64c7\u54ea\u4e9b\u6a19\u7684\u548c\u914d\u7f6e\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u5728\u65bc\u662f\u5426\u6e05\u695a\u8a8d\u8b58\u81ea\u5df1\u3002<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<h3>4. \u907f\u514d\u72af\u932f<\/h3>\n<p>\u907f\u514d\u72af\u932f\u9019\u53e5\u8a71\u53ef\u4ee5\u7406\u89e3\u6210\uff1a\u9632\u5b88\u6bd4\u9032\u653b\u66f4\u91cd\u8981\uff0c\u5c31\u5982\u540c\u5df4\u83f2\u7279\u8aaa\u904e\u7684\uff0c\u6295\u8cc7\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u5c31\u662f\u4e0d\u8981\u8667\u640d\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u99ac\u514b\u65af\u66fe\u8aaa\uff1a\u300c\u5728\u505a\u4ec0\u9ebc\u90fd\u4e0d\u8070\u660e\u7684\u6642\u5019\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u7684\u4efb\u52d9\u5c31\u662f\u907f\u514d\u72af\u932f\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u8070\u660e\u53ef\u80fd\u53cd\u88ab\u8070\u660e\u8aa4\u3002\u300d<\/p>\n<p>\u5728\u6975\u5177\u6311\u6230\u7684\u904e\u6e21\u6642\u671f\u6642\uff0c\u8981\u505a\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\u5c31\u662f\u7b49\u5f85\uff0c\u7b49\u5230\u6709\u66f4\u591a\u4fbf\u5b9c\u53ef\u4ee5\u64bf\u7684\u6642\u671f\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6a61\u6a39\u8cc7\u672c\u7684\u5ea7\u53f3\u9298\u5c31\u662f\uff1a\u300c\u907f\u514d\u6210\u70ba\u8f38\u5bb6\uff0c\u5c31\u80fd\u6210\u70ba\u8d0f\u5bb6\u3002\u300d<\/p>\n<p>\u9019\u9ede\u8207<a href=/index.html"https:\/\/\/charlie-munger-guru\/\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u67e5\u7406\u8499\u683c<\/a>\u7684\u53cd\u5411\u601d\u8003\u65b9\u5f0f\u6709\u6240\u547c\u61c9\uff1a\u300c\u6211\u53ea\u60f3\u77e5\u9053\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u6211\u6703\u6b7b\u5728\u54ea\u88e1\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u6211\u6c38\u9060\u4e0d\u6703\u53bb\u90a3\u88e1\u3002\u300d<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%E6%A9%A1%E6%A8%B9%E8%B3%87%E6%9C%AC%E7%AE%A1%E7%90%86%E7%B8%BE%E6%95%88%E8%A1%A8%E7%8F%BE\"><\/span>\u6a61\u6a39\u8cc7\u672c\u7ba1\u7406\u7e3e\u6548\u8868\u73fe<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>\u6a61\u6a39\u8cc7\u672c\u7ba1\u7406(Oaktree Capital Management)\u6210\u7acb\u65bc1995\u5e74\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u662f\u5168\u7403\u6700\u5927\u7684\u4e0d\u826f\u8b49\u5238\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u5168\u7403\u6700\u5927\u7684\u4fe1\u8cb8\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u516c\u53f8\u57282012\u5e74\u65bc\u7d10\u7d04\u8b49\u4ea4\u6240\u4e0a\u5e02\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u5168\u7403\u6709\u8d85\u904e1,000\u540d\u54e1\u5de5\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u81ea1995\u81f32022\/2\u768420\u591a\u5e74\u4f86\uff0c\u6a61\u6a39\u8cc7\u672c\u5e73\u5747\u56de\u5831\u7387\u9ad8\u905418.8%\uff0c\u76f8\u6bd4\u540c\u671f\u7f8e\u80a1S&amp;P 500\u7684\u56de\u5831\u70ba10.4%\u3002<br \/>\n<\/strong>\u4e0d\u904e\u67e5\u8cc7\u6599\u6642\u6211\u5011\u4e26\u6c92\u6709\u627e\u5230\u5831\u916c\u66f2\u7dda\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u7121\u6cd5\u4e86\u89e3\u5b83\u5728\u904e\u7a0b\u7684\u6de8\u503c\u9ad8\u4f4e\u8d77\u4f0f\u8b8a\u5316\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u800c\u6a61\u6a39\u8cc7\u672c\u516c\u53f8\u6240\u7ba1\u7406\u7684<strong>\u8cc7\u7522\u898f\u6a21<\/strong>\uff0c\u5f9e\u4e00\u958b\u59cb\u768450\u5104\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u9010\u5e74\u6210\u9577\uff0c<strong>\u81f32022\/9\/30\u5df2\u9ad8\u90541,630\u5104\u7f8e\u5143<\/strong>\u3002<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-46202\" src=/index.html"https:\/\/\/wp-content\/uploads\/20230102172350_54.jpg\" alt=\"\u6a61\u6a39\u8cc7\u672c\u7ba1\u7406\u8cc7\u7522\u898f\u6a21\" width=\"1557\" height=\"815\" srcset=\"https:\/\/\/wp-content\/uploads\/20230102172350_54.jpg 1557w, https:\/\/\/wp-content\/uploads\/20230102172350_54-1536x804.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1557px) 100vw, 1557px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u6a61\u6a39\u8cc7\u672c\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u9818\u57df\u5305\u542b\u4fe1\u8cb8\u6295\u8cc7\u3001\u623f\u5730\u7522\u3001\u79c1\u52df\u80a1\u6b0a\u548c\u80a1\u7968\u7b49\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u4ee5\u4fe1\u8cb8\u6295\u8cc7\u70ba\u6700\u5927\u5b97<\/strong>\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u4f54\u6295\u8cc7\u7d44\u5408\u9ad8\u905471%\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6240\u8b02\u7684\u4fe1\u8cb8\u6295\u8cc7\u5c31\u662f\u53bb\u6295\u8cc7\u4e00\u4e9b\u4e0d\u826f\u50b5\u6b0a\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u9ad8\u6536\u76ca\u50b5\uff0c\u53c8\u7a31\u70ba\u5783\u573e\u50b5\u5238\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6a61\u6a39\u8cc7\u672c\u4e5f\u662f\u76ee\u524d\u5168\u7403\u6700\u5927\u7684\u4e0d\u826f\u50b5\u6b0a\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u3002<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-46203\" src=/index.html"https:\/\/\/wp-content\/uploads\/20230102172434_21.jpg\" alt=\"\u6a61\u6a39\u8cc7\u672c\u6295\u8cc7\u8cc7\u7522\u7a2e\u985e\" width=\"1557\" height=\"815\" srcset=\"https:\/\/\/wp-content\/uploads\/20230102172434_21.jpg 1557w, https:\/\/\/wp-content\/uploads\/20230102172434_21-1536x804.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1557px) 100vw, 1557px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>\u99ac\u514b\u65af\u975e\u5e38\u64c5\u65bc\u7528<a href=/index.html"https:\/\/\/\uff57hat-is-credit-cycle\/\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u4fe1\u8cb8\u9031\u671f<\/a>\u4f86\u7372\u5229\uff0c\u6240\u8b02\u7684\u4fe1\u8cb8\u9031\u671f\u6307\u7684\u662f\u501f\u6b3e\u4eba\u7372\u5f97\u4fe1\u7528\u8cb8\u6b3e\u7684\u96e3\u6613\u5ea6\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u7576\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u666e\u904d\u6050\u614c\u7684\u6642\u5019\uff0c\u90a3\u4e9b\u9858\u610f\u627f\u64d4\u98a8\u96aa\u7684\u4eba\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u7528\u66f4\u597d\u7684\u50f9\u683c\u53d6\u5f97\u8cc7\u7522\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u9019\u7a2e\u9031\u671f\u6027\u884c\u70ba\u5728\u6b77\u53f2\u5df2\u7d93\u91cd\u8907\u5f88\u591a\u904d\uff0c\u5f9e\u6a61\u6a39\u7ba1\u7406\u8cc7\u672c\u6210\u7acb\u4ee5\u4f86\uff0c\u6709\u4e09\u6b21\u5927\u597d\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u6a5f\u6703\uff1a<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>1991\uff1a\u9ad8\u6536\u76ca\u50b5\u5238\u5371\u6a5f<\/li>\n<li>2001-2002\uff1a\u7db2\u8def\u6ce1\u6cab\u5371\u6a5f<\/li>\n<li>2008\uff1a\u91d1\u878d\u6d77\u562f\u5371\u6a5f<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u6a61\u6a39\u8cc7\u672c\u70ba\u5168\u7403\u8a31\u591a\u77e5\u540d\u6a5f\u69cb\u7ba1\u7406\u8cc7\u7522\uff0c\u5b83\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u6700\u5927\u7684\u662f\u516c\u5171\u57fa\u91d1\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u990a\u8001\u91d1\u8a08\u5283\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b100\u500b\u6700\u5927\u7684\u990a\u8001\u91d1\u8a08\u5283\u4e2d\uff0c\u670975\u500b\u90fd\u662f\u5b83\u7684\u5ba2\u6236\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u50cf\u662f\u4fdd\u96aa\u516c\u53f8\u3001<a href=/index.html"https:\/\/\/sovereign-wealth-fund\/\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u4e3b\u6b0a\u8ca1\u5bcc\u57fa\u91d1<\/a>\u7b49\u4e5f\u90fd\u662f\u4e3b\u8981\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-46208\" src=/index.html"https:\/\/\/wp-content\/uploads\/20230102173304_28.jpg\" alt=\"\u6a61\u6a39\u8cc7\u672c\u4e3b\u8981\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\" width=\"1557\" height=\"815\" srcset=\"https:\/\/\/wp-content\/uploads\/20230102173304_28.jpg 1557w, https:\/\/\/wp-content\/uploads\/20230102173304_28-1536x804.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1557px) 100vw, 1557px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>\u90a3\u9ebc\uff0c\u4e00\u822c\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u80fd\u4e0d\u80fd\u6295\u8cc7\u6a61\u6a39\u8cc7\u672c\u5462\uff1f<\/p>\n<p>\u6211\u5011\u67e5\u8a62\u5230\u6a61\u6a39\u8cc7\u672c\u5728\u7d10\u7d04\u8b49\u4ea4\u6240\u4e0a\u5e02\u7684\u80a1\u7968OAK\uff0c\u662f\u4e00\u6a94\u7279\u5225\u80a1\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u6211\u5011\u4e00\u822c\u8a8d\u77e5\u6709\u56fa\u5b9a\u6536\u76ca\u7684\u7279\u5225\u80a1\uff0c\u4e26\u4e0d\u662f\u4e00\u822c\u7684\u80a1\u7968\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u8cfc\u8cb7\u5b83\u7684\u7279\u5225\u80a1\u7684\u8a71\uff0c\u5831\u916c\u6703\u8207\u80a1\u50f9\u53ca\u7279\u5225\u80a1\u8a2d\u5b9a\u7684\u56fa\u5b9a\u914d\u606f\u6709\u95dc\uff0c\u800c\u80a1\u50f9\u6703\u8ddf\u7576\u4e0b\u7684\u5e02\u5834\u5229\u7387\u6709\u66f4\u5927\u7684\u95dc\u4fc2\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u6703\u53cd\u61c9\u5b83\u7684\u57fa\u91d1\u5831\u916c\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u56e0\u6b64\u6295\u8cc7\u8a72\u6a94OAK\u80a1\u7968\u4e26\u4e0d\u7b49\u65bc\u6295\u8cc7\u6a61\u6a39\u8cc7\u672c\u7684\u57fa\u91d1\u3002<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-46205\" src=/index.html"https:\/\/\/wp-content\/uploads\/20230102172554_36.jpg\" alt=\"\u6a61\u6a39\u8cc7\u672c\u7279\u5225\u80a1\u80a1\u50f9\" width=\"1557\" height=\"815\" srcset=\"https:\/\/\/wp-content\/uploads\/20230102172554_36.jpg 1557w, https:\/\/\/wp-content\/uploads\/20230102172554_36-1536x804.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1557px) 100vw, 1557px\" \/><\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%E9%9C%8D%E8%8F%AF%E9%A6%AC%E5%85%8B%E6%96%AF%E7%9A%84%E6%8A%95%E8%B3%87%E5%82%99%E5%BF%98%E9%8C%84%E5%93%AA%E8%A3%A1%E7%9C%8B%EF%BC%9F\"><\/span>\u970d\u83ef\u99ac\u514b\u65af\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u5099\u5fd8\u9304\u54ea\u88e1\u770b\uff1f<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>\u970d\u83ef\u99ac\u514b\u65af\u5f9e1990\u5e74\u4ee3\u5c31\u958b\u59cb\u70ba\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u5beb\u6295\u8cc7\u5099\u5fd8\u9304(The Memo by Howard 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noreferrer\">\u91d1\u878d\u6d77\u562f<\/a>\u7684\u5230\u4f86\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5982\u679c\u82f1\u6587\u4e0d\u662f\u90a3\u9ebc\u597d\u7684\u8a71\uff0c\u5927\u6982\u5728\u5099\u5fd8\u9304\u767c\u8868\u5e7e\u5929\u5f8c\u5f88\u591a\u53f0\u7063\u7684\u5a92\u9ad4\u5c31\u6703\u7ffb\u8b6f\u6210\u4e2d\u6587\uff0c\u5230\u6642\u5019\u518dgoogle\u300c\u970d\u83ef\u99ac\u514b\u65af \u5099\u5fd8\u9304\u300d\u5c31\u80fd\u627e\u5230\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6211\u89ba\u5f97\u6709\u8a31\u591a\u7bc7\u5099\u5fd8\u9304\u5167\u5bb9\u90fd\u76f8\u7576\u503c\u5f97\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u601d\u8003\u548c\u5b78\u7fd2\uff0c\u672a\u4f86\u5e02\u5834\u5148\u751f\u6709\u6642\u9593\u518d\u9678\u7e8c\u6574\u7406\u5176\u4e2d\u91cd\u9ede\u6458\u8981\u3002<\/p>\n<p><a href=/index.html"https:\/\/www.oaktreecapital.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\" data-wpel-link=\"external\">\u6a61\u6a39\u8cc7\u672c\u7ba1\u7406\u5b98\u7db2<\/a><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-46479\" src=/index.html"https:\/\/\/wp-content\/uploads\/20230105133735_16.jpg\" alt=\"\u970d\u83ef\u99ac\u514b\u65af\u6295\u8cc7\u5099\u5fd8\u9304\" width=\"1557\" height=\"815\" srcset=\"https:\/\/\/wp-content\/uploads\/20230105133735_16.jpg 1557w, https:\/\/\/wp-content\/uploads\/20230105133735_16-1536x804.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1557px) 100vw, 1557px\" \/><\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%E5%BF%AB%E9%80%9F%E9%87%8D%E9%BB%9E%E6%95%B4%E7%90%86%EF%BC%9A%E9%9C%8D%E8%8F%AF%E9%A6%AC%E5%85%8B%E6%96%AF%E7%B5%A6%E6%88%91%E5%80%91%E7%9A%84%E5%95%9F%E7%99%BC\"><\/span>\u5feb\u901f\u91cd\u9ede\u6574\u7406\uff1a\u970d\u83ef\u99ac\u514b\u65af\u7d66\u6211\u5011\u7684\u555f\u767c<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>\u5728\u7814\u7a76\u970d\u83ef\u99ac\u514b\u65af\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u751f\u6daf\u6642\uff0c\u767c\u73fe\u4ed6\u8207\u5176\u4ed6\u6295\u8cc7\u5927\u5e2b\u6700\u4e0d\u4e00\u6a23\u7684\u5730\u65b9\u5728\u65bc\uff0c\u5f88\u591a\u6295\u8cc7\u5927\u5e2b\u90fd\u6709\u5927\u8d77\u5927\u843d\u7684\u7d93\u6b77\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u970d\u83ef\u99ac\u514b\u65af\u7684\u8868\u73fe\u537b\u5341\u5206\u7a69\u5b9a\uff0cgoogle\u4ed6\u6295\u8cc7\u5931\u6557\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\u751a\u81f3\u67e5\u8a62\u4e0d\u5230\u5167\u5bb9\uff0c\u9019\u975e\u5e38\u7b26\u5408\u6a61\u6a39\u8cc7\u672c\u7684\u5ea7\u53f3\u9298\uff1a\u300c\u907f\u514d\u6210\u70ba\u8f38\u5bb6\uff0c\u5c31\u80fd\u6210\u70ba\u8d0f\u5bb6\u3002\u300d<\/p>\n<p>\u4ed6\u9664\u4e86\u5177\u6709\u8207\u773e\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u6d1e\u898b\u4e4b\u5916\uff0c\u5c0d\u65bc\u98a8\u96aa\u7684\u63a7\u7ba1\u4e5f\u662f\u5341\u5206\u95dc\u9375\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u4ed6\u53c8\u88ab\u7a31\u70ba\u300c\u98a8\u96aa\u5927\u5e2b\u300d\uff0c\u5c0d\u65bc\u98a8\u96aa\u4e5f\u6709\u8457\u8207\u5176\u4ed6\u4eba\u4e0d\u4e00\u6a23\u7684\u898b\u89e3\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5982\u679c\u5c0d\u970d\u83ef\u99ac\u514b\u65af\u6709\u8208\u8da3\u7684\u8b80\u8005\uff0c\u4e0d\u59a8\u8a02\u95b1\u4ed6\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u5099\u5fd8\u9304\u4ee5\u53ca\u95b1\u8b80\u4ed6\u5beb\u7684\u66f8\uff0c\u76f8\u4fe1\u6703\u5c0d\u4ed6\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u7406\u5ff5\u6709\u66f4\u6df1\u5165\u7684\u4e86\u89e3\u3002<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%E9%9C%8D%E8%8F%AF%E9%A6%AC%E5%85%8B%E6%96%AF%E5%8F%83%E8%80%83%E6%9B%B8%E5%96%AE\"><\/span>\u970d\u83ef\u99ac\u514b\u65af\u53c3\u8003\u66f8\u55ae<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>\u300a<a href=/index.html"https:\/\/\/blog-post_28-3\/\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u6295\u8cc7\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u4e8b\uff1a\u4e00\u672c\u80a1\u795e\u5df4\u83f2\u7279\u8b80\u4e86\u5169\u904d\u7684\u66f8<\/a>\u300b<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-46209 size-thumbnail\" src=/index.html"https:\/\/\/wp-content\/uploads\/20230102173414_96-150x150.jpg\" alt=\"\u6295\u8cc7\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u4e8b\" width=\"150\" height=\"150\" \/><\/p>\n<p>\u300a<a href=/index.html"https:\/\/www.books.com.tw\/products\/0010810203?sloc=main\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\" data-wpel-link=\"external\">\u638c\u63e1\u5e02\u5834\u9031\u671f\uff1a\u50f9\u503c\u6295\u8cc7\u5927\u5e2b\u970d\u83ef\uff0e\u99ac\u514b\u65af\u6559\u4f60\u770b\u5c0d\u5e02\u5834\u6642\u6a5f\uff0c\u63d0\u9ad8\u6295\u8cc7\u52dd\u7b97<\/a>\u300b<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-46210 size-thumbnail\" src=/index.html"https:\/\/\/wp-content\/uploads\/20230102173432_54-150x150.jpg\" alt=\"\u638c\u63e1\u5e02\u5834\u9031\u671f\" width=\"150\" height=\"150\" \/><\/p>\n\u5c08\u6b04\u4f5c\u8005\uff1a\u725f\u5747\u4fde\u3000\u4e3b\u7de8\uff1a\u5e02\u5834\u5148\u751f\n<p><strong><span style=\"font-size: 20px;\">\u52a0\u5165\u5e02\u5834\u5148\u751fFB\u793e\u5718\uff0c\u5145\u5be6\u66f4\u591a\u7406\u8ca1\u597d\u77e5\u8b58<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\r\n<p>50\u6b72\u4e4b\u524d\u60f3\u9000\u4f11\u4e00\u5b9a\u8981\u61c2\u7406\u8ca1\uff0c<br \/>\u89e3\u6c7a\u6295\u8cc7\u7684\u7169\u60f1\uff01<\/p>\r\n<p><a href=/index.html"https:\/\/bit.ly\/2NTBOAv\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\" data-wpel-link=\"external\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-7106\" src=/index.html"https:\/\/\/wp-content\/uploads\/20190824195036_69.gif\" alt=\"\" width=\"687\" height=\"243\" \/><\/a><\/p>\r\n<p>\u6700\u8fd1\u5e02\u5834\u5148\u751f\u958b\u4e86\u4e00\u5802\u7684\u300c<strong>\u7528\u7f8e\u80a1ETF\u5275\u9020\u7a69\u5b9a\u73fe\u91d1\u6d41<\/strong>\u300d\u6559\u5b78\u8ab2\u7a0b\uff0c<br \/>\u9019\u5802\u8ab2\u7a0b\u6703\u5f9e\u57fa\u790e\u5165\u9580\u3001\u8cc7\u6599\u67e5\u8a62\u5230\u5be6\u969b\u64cd\u4f5c\uff0c<br \/>\u6559\u4f60\u5b78\u6703\u5efa\u7acb\u4e00\u500b\u7a69\u5b9a\u7684\u5168\u7403ETF\u6295\u8cc7\u7d44\u5408\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u7d2f\u7a4d\u5df2\u7d93\u6709\u5c07\u8fd11100\u4f4d\u540c\u5b78\u4e0a\u8ab2\u3002<\/p>\r\n<p>\u7dda\u4e0a\u8ab2\u7a0b\u300b<a href=/index.html"http:\/\/bit.ly\/2FV3hPc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\" data-wpel-link=\"external\">\u7f8e\u80a1ETF\u5275\u9020\u7a69\u5b9a\u73fe\u91d1\u6d41\u7dda\u4e0a\u8ab2\u7a0b\u9023\u7d50<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u970d\u83ef\u00b7\u99ac\u514b\u65af\u662f\u70ba\u5168\u7403\u77e5\u540d\u7684\u50f9\u503c\u6295\u8cc7\u5927\u5e2b\uff0c\u4ed6\u6700\u53d7\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u95dc\u6ce8\u7684\u4e00\u9ede\u5c31\u662f\u4ed6\u5e7e\u4e4e\u6bcf\u5b63\u90fd\u6703\u767c\u8868\u4e00\u7bc7\u300c\u6295\u8cc7\u5099\u5fd8\u9304\u300d\u7d66\u5ba2\u6236\uff0c [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":11,"featured_media":46211,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_lmt_disableupdate":"no","_lmt_disable":"no","footnotes":""},"categories":[1800],"tags":[],"table_tags":[],"modified_by":"Leon","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/\/wp-content\/uploads\/20230102173651_50.jpg","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":5447,"url":"https:\/\/\/2019-2-books\/","url_meta":{"origin":46199,"position":0},"title":"2019\u300b2\u6708\u5e02\u5834\u5148\u751f\u63a8\u85a6\u66f8\u55ae","author":"Mr.Market\u5e02\u5834\u5148\u751f","date":"2019-02-07","format":false,"excerpt":"\u672c\u6708\u5e02\u5834\u5148\u751f\u6311\u9078\u4e86\u5e7e\u672c\u6709\u8da3\u7684\u66f8\u55ae\uff0c\u5206\u4eab\u7d66\u4f60\uff1a \u3010\u6307\u6578\u6295\u8cc7\u3011 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