{"id":50998,"date":"2023-04-24T12:27:03","date_gmt":"2023-04-24T04:27:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/\/?p=50998"},"modified":"2023-04-24T12:39:03","modified_gmt":"2023-04-24T04:39:03","slug":"regression-to-the-mean","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/\/regression-to-the-mean\/","title":{"rendered":"\u5747\u503c\u56de\u6b78\u662f\u4ec0\u9ebc\uff1f\u5c0d\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u6709\u4ec0\u9ebc\u555f\u793a\uff1f"},"content":{"rendered":"<!-- \/367108978\/Rich01_PC_up_728x90 -->\n\t<div class='div-gpt-ad-css' id='div-gpt-ad-1564472272479-0' style='width: 728px; height: 90px;'>\n\t  <script>\n\t\tgoogletag.cmd.push(function() { googletag.display('div-gpt-ad-1564472272479-0'); });\n\t  <\/script>\n\t<\/div><p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-50999\" src=/index.html"https:\/\/\/wp-content\/uploads\/20230423071646_88.jpg\" alt=\"\u5747\u503c\u56de\u6b78\" width=\"1413\" height=\"740\" 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target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u5747\u503c\u56de\u6b78\u7528\u5728\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u610f\u7fa9<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-7\" href=/index.html"https:\/\/\/regression-to-the-mean\/#%E5%9D%87%E5%80%BC%E5%9B%9E%E6%AD%B8%E7%9A%84%E5%B8%B8%E8%A6%8B%E8%AA%A4%E8%A7%A3\" title=\"\u5747\u503c\u56de\u6b78\u7684\u5e38\u898b\u8aa4\u89e3\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u5747\u503c\u56de\u6b78\u7684\u5e38\u898b\u8aa4\u89e3<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-8\" href=/index.html"https:\/\/\/regression-to-the-mean\/#%E5%B8%82%E5%A0%B4%E5%85%88%E7%94%9F%E8%A7%80%E9%BB%9E%EF%BC%9A%E5%9C%A8%E6%8A%95%E8%B3%87%E6%93%8D%E4%BD%9C%E4%B8%8A%EF%BC%8C%E9%97%9C%E9%8D%B5%E5%85%B6%E5%AF%A6%E4%B8%8D%E6%98%AF%E3%80%8C%E5%9D%87%E5%80%BC%E5%9B%9E%E6%AD%B8%E3%80%8D%E8%80%8C%E6%98%AF%E3%80%8C%E9%95%B7%E6%9C%9F%E3%80%8D\" title=\"\u5e02\u5834\u5148\u751f\u89c0\u9ede\uff1a\u5728\u6295\u8cc7\u64cd\u4f5c\u4e0a\uff0c\u95dc\u9375\u5176\u5be6\u4e0d\u662f\u300c\u5747\u503c\u56de\u6b78\u300d\u800c\u662f\u300c\u9577\u671f\u300d\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u5e02\u5834\u5148\u751f\u89c0\u9ede\uff1a\u5728\u6295\u8cc7\u64cd\u4f5c\u4e0a\uff0c\u95dc\u9375\u5176\u5be6\u4e0d\u662f\u300c\u5747\u503c\u56de\u6b78\u300d\u800c\u662f\u300c\u9577\u671f\u300d<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-9\" href=/index.html"https:\/\/\/regression-to-the-mean\/#%E5%BF%AB%E9%80%9F%E9%87%8D%E9%BB%9E%E6%95%B4%E7%90%86%EF%BC%9A%E4%BB%80%E9%BA%BC%E6%98%AF%E5%9D%87%E5%80%BC%E5%9B%9E%E6%AD%B8%EF%BC%9F%E5%9C%A8%E9%87%91%E8%9E%8D%E6%8A%95%E8%B3%87%E4%B8%AD%E6%9C%89%E4%BB%80%E9%BA%BC%E6%84%8F%E7%BE%A9%EF%BC%9F\" title=\"\u5feb\u901f\u91cd\u9ede\u6574\u7406\uff1a\u4ec0\u9ebc\u662f\u5747\u503c\u56de\u6b78\uff1f\u5728\u91d1\u878d\u6295\u8cc7\u4e2d\u6709\u4ec0\u9ebc\u610f\u7fa9\uff1f\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u5feb\u901f\u91cd\u9ede\u6574\u7406\uff1a\u4ec0\u9ebc\u662f\u5747\u503c\u56de\u6b78\uff1f\u5728\u91d1\u878d\u6295\u8cc7\u4e2d\u6709\u4ec0\u9ebc\u610f\u7fa9\uff1f<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%E5%9D%87%E5%80%BC%E5%9B%9E%E6%AD%B8%E6%98%AF%E4%BB%80%E9%BA%BC%EF%BC%9F\"><\/span>\u5747\u503c\u56de\u6b78\u662f\u4ec0\u9ebc\uff1f<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>\u5747\u503c\u56de\u6b78\uff0c\u82f1\u6587 Regression to the Mean\uff0c\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u7d71\u8a08\u5b78\u7684\u540d\u8a5e\uff0c\u8aaa\u660e\u5982\u679c\u96a8\u6a5f\u8b8a\u6578\u7684\u4e00\u500b\u6a23\u672c\u662f\u6975\u7aef\u503c\uff0c\u540c\u4e00\u96a8\u6a5f\u8b8a\u6578\u7684\u4e0b\u4e00\u500b\u62bd\u6a23\u53ef\u80fd\u66f4\u63a5\u8fd1\u5176\u5e73\u5747\u503c\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u9019\u500b\u6982\u5ff5\u7528\u5728\u91d1\u878d\u9818\u57df\u7684\u8a71\uff0c\u662f\u6307<strong>\u4e00\u500b\u8cc7\u7522\u7684\u50f9\u683c\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u77ed\u671f\u504f\u96e2\u5e73\u5747\u5f88\u591a\uff0c\u90a3\u9577\u671f\u800c\u8a00\u66f4\u53ef\u80fd\u66f4\u53ef\u80fd\u5f80\u53cd\u65b9\u5411\u767c\u5c55\uff0c\u5f80\u5e73\u5747\u503c\u9760\u8fd1\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u56e0\u70ba\u7576\u5e02\u5834\u50f9\u683c\u4f4e\u65bc\u904e\u53bb\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u50f9\u683c\u6642\uff0c\u8a72\u8cc7\u7522\u5c31\u8f03\u53ef\u80fd\u6703\u88ab\u8cfc\u8cb7\uff0c\u50f9\u683c\u56e0\u800c\u4e0a\u5347\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u53cd\u4e4b\uff0c\u82e5\u5e02\u5834\u50f9\u683c\u9ad8\u65bc\u904e\u53bb\u7684\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u50f9\u683c\u6642\uff0c\u8a72\u8cc7\u7522\u5c31\u8f03\u53ef\u80fd\u6703\u88ab\u8ce3\u51fa\uff0c\u50f9\u683c\u56e0\u800c\u4e0b\u8dcc\u3002<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%E5%9D%87%E5%80%BC%E5%9B%9E%E6%AD%B8%E7%9A%84%E7%AF%84%E4%BE%8B\"><\/span>\u5747\u503c\u56de\u6b78\u7684\u7bc4\u4f8b<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<h3>\u7bc4\u4f8b1\uff1a\u53c3\u52a0\u8003\u8a66\u7684\u5b78\u751f<\/h3>\n<p>\u5047\u8a2d\u4e00\u500b\u73ed\u7d1a\u7684\u5b78\u751f\u53c3\u52a0\u4e00\u500b100\u984c\u7684\u662f\u975e\u984c\u8003\u8a66\uff0c\u6bcf\u984c\u5206\u65781\u5206\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u6240\u6709\u5b78\u751f\u5728\u7b54\u984c\u7684\u6642\u5019\u90fd\u662f\u96a8\u6a5f\u4e82\u9078\uff0c\u90a3\u9ebc\u9810\u671f\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u5206\u6578\u662f50\u5206\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5728\u9019\u500b\u4f8b\u5b50\u4e2d\uff0c\u6709\u4e9b\u5b78\u751f\u7684\u5206\u6578\u6703\u9ad8\u65bc50\u5206\u5f88\u591a\uff0c\u6709\u4e9b\u5247\u662f\u5927\u5927\u4f4e\u65bc50\u5206\u3002\u5982\u679c\u53ea\u9078\u64c7\u5206\u6578\u6700\u9ad8\u768410%\u7684\u5b78\u751f\u4f86\u53c3\u52a0\u7b2c\u4e8c\u6b21\u8003\u8a66\uff0c\u8b93\u4ed6\u5011\u518d\u6b21\u96a8\u6a5f\u7b54\u984c\uff0c\u90a3\u9ebc\u9810\u671f\u5e73\u5747\u5206\u6578\u5c07\u518d\u6b21\u63a5\u8fd150\u5206\u3002\u56e0\u70ba\uff0c\u9019\u4e9b\u5728\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b21\u8003\u8a66\u8003\u5f97\u597d\u7684\u5b78\u751f\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u662f\u9760\u904b\u6c23\u6210\u5206\uff0c\u5728\u7b2c\u4e8c\u6b21\u8003\u8a66\u6642\uff0c\u5c07\u300c\u56de\u6b78\u300d\u5230\u539f\u59cb\u6240\u6709\u53c3\u52a0\u8003\u8a66\u5b78\u751f\u7684\u300c\u5e73\u5747\u503c\u300d\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u7576\u7136\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u5b78\u751f\u7b54\u984c\u4e0d\u662f\u96a8\u6a5f\u7684\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u6191\u4ed6\u5011\u7684\u5be6\u529b\uff0c\u90a3\u9ebc\u9019\u4e9b\u5b78\u751f\u53c3\u52a0\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b21\u8003\u8a66\u8ddf\u7b2c\u4e8c\u6b21\u8003\u8a66\u7684\u6210\u7e3e\u7d50\u679c\u5c31\u6703\u76f8\u540c\uff0c\u4e26\u4e0d\u6703\u5411\u5e73\u5747\u503c\u56de\u6b78\u3002<\/p>\n<h3>\u7bc4\u4f8b2\uff1a\u8db3\u7403\u6bd4\u8cfd<\/h3>\n<p>\u5047\u8a2d\u4f60\u6700\u559c\u6b61\u7684\u8db3\u7403\u968a\u5728\u53bb\u5e74\u8d0f\u5f97\u4e86\u51a0\u8ecd\uff0c\u90a3\u9ebc\u4ed6\u5011\u4e0b\u500b\u8cfd\u5b63\u518d\u6b21\u7372\u5f97\u51a0\u8ecd\u7684\u6a5f\u7387\u662f\u591a\u5c11\uff1f<\/p>\n<p>\u90a3\u8981\u770b\u4ed6\u5011\u53bb\u5e74\u7372\u5f97\u51a0\u8ecd\u4e3b\u8981\u662f\u9760\u904b\u6c23\u9084\u662f\u5be6\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5047\u5982\u8a72\u8db3\u7403\u968a\u53bb\u5e74\u7372\u5f97\u51a0\u8ecd\u662f\u9760\u5be6\u529b\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u7403\u54e1\u6280\u8853\u9ad8\u8d85\u3001\u6559\u7df4\u6709\u5f88\u5f37\u7684\u6230\u7565\u7b49\uff0c\u90a3\u9ebc\u4ed6\u5011\u4e0b\u500b\u8cfd\u5b63\u7372\u5f97\u51a0\u8ecd\u7684\u6a5f\u7387\u9084\u662f\u5f88\u9ad8\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5047\u5982\u8a72\u8db3\u7403\u968a\u53bb\u5e74\u7372\u5f97\u51a0\u8ecd\u662f\u9760\u904b\u6c23\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u5c0d\u65b9\u7403\u968a\u525b\u597d\u72c0\u6cc1\u4e0d\u4f73\u3001\u62bd\u7c64\u7d50\u679c\u8f03\u6709\u5229\u7b49\uff0c\u90a3\u9ebc\u4ed6\u5011\u4e0b\u500b\u8cfd\u5b63\u7372\u5f97\u51a0\u8ecd\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u5c31\u6108\u4f4e\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u56e0\u70ba<strong>\u904b\u6c23\u5c0d\u6975\u7aef\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\u6108\u5927\uff0c\u5b83\u5728\u591a\u500b\u4e8b\u4ef6\u4e2d\u91cd\u6f14\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u5c31\u6108\u5c0f<\/strong>\uff0c\u610f\u601d\u662f\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u6bcf\u6b21\u90fd\u6191\u85c9\u904b\u6c23\u7372\u5f97\u51a0\u8ecd\u3002<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%E5%9D%87%E5%80%BC%E5%9B%9E%E6%AD%B8%E7%9A%84%E7%94%B1%E4%BE%86\"><\/span>\u5747\u503c\u56de\u6b78\u7684\u7531\u4f86<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>\u5747\u503c\u56de\u6b78\u9019\u500b\u6982\u5ff5\u6700\u65e9\u662f\u572819\u4e16\u7d00\u7531\u5f17\u6717\u897f\u65af\u00b7\u9ad8\u723e\u9813(Sir Francus Galton)\u6240\u63d0\u51fa\uff0c\u4ed6\u662f\u82f1\u570b\u8457\u540d\u81ea\u7136\u5b78\u5bb6\u9054\u723e\u6587\u7684\u8868\u5f1f\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u4e00\u4f4d\u77e5\u540d\u7684\u535a\u5b78\u5bb6\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u9ad8\u723e\u9813\u89c0\u5bdf\u5230\uff0c\u7236\u6bcd\u7684\u6975\u7aef\u7279\u5fb5(\u4f8b\u5982\u8eab\u9ad8)\uff0c\u4e26\u4e0d\u6703\u5b8c\u5168\u907a\u50b3\u7d66\u4ed6\u5011\u7684\u5f8c\u4ee3\u3002\u6211\u5011\u904e\u53bb\u7684\u89c0\u5ff5\u90fd\u662f\u8eab\u9ad8\u9ad8\u7684\u7236\u6bcd\u6703\u751f\u51fa\u8eab\u9ad8\u9ad8\u7684\u5c0f\u5b69\uff0c\u53cd\u4e4b\u4ea6\u7136\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u4e8b\u5be6\u4e26\u975e\u5b8c\u5168\u5982\u6b64\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u6839\u64da\u9ad8\u723e\u9813\u7684\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u6210\u5e74\u5152\u7ae5\u7684\u8eab\u9ad8\u5f80\u5f80\u6bd4\u4ed6\u5011\u7684\u7236\u6bcd\u66f4\u63a5\u8fd1\u5e73\u5747\u8eab\u9ad8<\/strong>\uff0c\u8209\u4f8b\u4f86\u8aaa\uff0c\u67d0\u570b\u5bb6\u5e73\u5747\u8eab\u9ad8\u662f160\u516c\u5206\uff0c\u4e00\u5c0d\u90fd\u662f170\u516c\u5206\u7684\u7236\u6bcd\uff0c\u4ed6\u5011\u7684\u5c0f\u5b69\u662f168\u516c\u5206\uff0c\u9019\u5c31\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u5c0f\u5b69\u8eab\u9ad8\u6bd4\u7236\u6bcd\u8eab\u9ad8\u66f4\u63a5\u8fd1\u5e73\u5747\u8eab\u9ad8\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u9ad8\u723e\u9813\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u8aaa\u660e\u4e86\u300c\u56de\u6b78\u5230\u5e73\u5747\u503c\u300d\u7684\u6982\u5ff5<\/strong>\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u6709\u4e86\u300c\u5747\u503c\u56de\u6b78\u300d\u9019\u500b\u8a5e\u3002<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">\u5716\uff1a1886\u5e74\u9ad8\u723e\u9813\u63d0\u51fa\u95dc\u65bc\u6210\u5e74\u5152\u7ae5\u8eab\u9ad8\u8ddf\u7236\u6bcd\u4e4b\u9593\u76f8\u95dc\u6027\u7684\u5716<br \/>\n<img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-51000\" src=/index.html"https:\/\/\/wp-content\/uploads\/20230423072210_21.jpg\" alt=\"\u9ad8\u723e\u9813\u8eab\u9ad8\u56de\u6b78\u5747\u503c\u5716\" width=\"1413\" height=\"1113\" \/><\/p>\n<p>\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u9ad8\u723e\u9813\u9084\u505a\u4e86\u4e00\u500b\u5be6\u9a57\uff0c\u628a\u73e0\u5b50\u5f9e\u677f\u4e0a\u4e1f\u843d\uff0c\u4e2d\u9593\u6709\u5f88\u591a\u5e72\u64fe\u7684\u969c\u7919(\u5f88\u50cf\u6211\u5011\u5728\u591c\u5e02\u73a9\u7684\u5f48\u73e0\u53f0)\uff0c\u73e0\u5b50\u5f9e\u4e2d\u9593\u4e1f\u4e0b\u53bb\uff0c\u6703\u5411\u5de6\u8dd1\u4e5f\u6703\u5411\u53f3\u8dd1\uff0c\u6700\u5f8c\u6563\u5e03\u7684\u72c0\u614b\u6703\u5448\u73fe\u4e00\u500b\u9418\u578b\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u50cf\u6211\u5011\u8aaa\u7684\u5e38\u614b\u5206\u4f48\uff0c\u5982\u4e0b\u5716\uff0c\u9019\u500b\u677f\u5b50\u5f8c\u4f86\u88ab\u7a31\u70ba\u300c\u9ad8\u723e\u9813\u677f\u300d\u3002<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">\u5716\uff1a\u9ad8\u723e\u9813\u7684\u5be6\u9a57\uff0c\u7528\u73e0\u5b50\u5f9e\u677f\u4e0a\u6389\u843d\u5206\u4f48\u7684\u72c0\u6cc1\u4f86\u8b49\u5be6\u5747\u503c\u56de\u6b78<br \/>\n<img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-51001\" src=/index.html"https:\/\/\/wp-content\/uploads\/20230423072238_83.jpg\" alt=\"\u9ad8\u723e\u9813 \u5f48\u73e0\u53f0\u5be6\u9a57\" width=\"1413\" height=\"1113\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%E5%9D%87%E5%80%BC%E5%9B%9E%E6%AD%B8%EF%BC%9A%E4%BB%A5%E7%BE%8E%E5%9C%8B%E8%82%A1%E5%B8%82%E7%82%BA%E4%BE%8B\"><\/span>\u5747\u503c\u56de\u6b78\uff1a\u4ee5\u7f8e\u570b\u80a1\u5e02\u70ba\u4f8b<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>\u4ee5\u7f8e\u570b\u80a1\u5e02\u70ba\u4f8b\uff0c<a href=/index.html"https:\/\/advisor.visualcapitalist.com\/historical-stock-market-returns\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\" data-wpel-link=\"external\">Visual Capitalist\u7d71\u8a08\u4e86\u5f9e1825~2019\u5e74\u9593\uff0cS&amp;P 500\u6307\u6578\u6b77\u5e74\u7684\u5831\u916c\u5206\u4f48<\/a>\uff0c\u5982\u4e0b\u5716\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5f9e\u5716\u4e2d\u53ef\u4ee5\u770b\u51fa\uff0c\u5728\u9019195\u5e74\u9593\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u5e74\u5831\u916c\u7387\u843d\u57280~10%\u7684\u6700\u591a\uff0c\u670946\u5e74\uff0c\u6b77\u5e74\u5831\u916c\u5927\u81f4\u7b26\u5408\u5e38\u614b\u5206\u4f48\uff0c\u5f80\u4e2d\u9593\u9760\u650f\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6975\u7aef\u7684\u72c0\u6cc1\u8f03\u70ba\u5c11\u898b\uff0c\u4f8b\u59821931\u5e74\u662f\u7f8e\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u5927\u856d\u689d\u5f8c\u76842\u5e74\uff0c\u7576\u5e74\u5ea6\u5831\u916c\u7387\u70ba-50%~-40%\u30021954\u5e74\u5247\u662f\u7f8e\u570b\u6b63\u5f0f\u8d70\u51fa\u7d93\u6fdf\u5927\u856d\u689d\uff0c\u5f9e\u90a3\u5e74\u8d77\u6295\u8cc7\u6a5f\u69cb\u8fc5\u901f\u767c\u5c55\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u80a1\u5e02\u9032\u5165\u73fe\u4ee3\u5316\u6295\u8cc7\u6642\u4ee3\uff0c\u7576\u5e74\u5ea6\u5831\u916c\u7387\u9ad8\u905450%~60%\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u77ed\u671f\u4f86\u770b\uff0c\u50f9\u683c\u6703\u6709\u524d\u5f8c\u95dc\u806f\u6027\uff0c\u9019\u53ef\u80fd\u4e5f\u662f\u5747\u503c\u56de\u6b78\u7684\u4e00\u7a2e\u8868\u73fe\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff1a<\/p>\n<p>2008\u662f -30%\u81f3-40%\uff0c\u4f46\u76f8\u9130\u76842009\u5247\u662f+20%~+30%\u3002<\/p>\n<p>1930\u548c1931\uff0c\u5206\u5225\u662f-20%~-30%\u3001-40%~-50%\uff0c\u4f461928\u662f+40%~+50%\uff0c1933\u662f+50%~+60%\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u5747\u503c\u56de\u6b78\u7d66\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u7684\u555f\u793a\u662f\uff1a\u9577\u671f\u6295\u8cc7\u7684\u8a71\uff0c\u6700\u5f8c\u6703\u53d6\u5f97\u8da8\u8fd1\u65bc\u5e02\u5834\u5e73\u5747\u7684\u5831\u916c\uff0c\u800c\u9019\u500b\u5831\u916c\u5728\u591a\u6578\u6642\u5019\u90fd\u662f\u6b63\u7684\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-51002\" src=/index.html"https:\/\/\/wp-content\/uploads\/20230423072452_82.jpg\" alt=\"S&amp;P 500\u6307\u6578\u6b77\u5e74\u5831\u916c\u5206\u4f48\" width=\"1413\" height=\"1113\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%E5%9D%87%E5%80%BC%E5%9B%9E%E6%AD%B8%EF%BC%8C%E4%B9%9F%E5%8F%8D%E6%87%89%E5%9C%A8%E5%90%84%E7%A8%AE%E8%B3%87%E7%94%A2%E9%95%B7%E6%9C%9F%E8%A1%A8%E7%8F%BE%E4%B8%8A\"><\/span>\u5747\u503c\u56de\u6b78\uff0c\u4e5f\u53cd\u61c9\u5728\u5404\u7a2e\u8cc7\u7522\u9577\u671f\u8868\u73fe\u4e0a<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p><strong>\u5404\u7a2e\u8cc7\u7522\u8868\u73fe\uff0c\u77ed\u671f\u843d\u5dee\u5de8\u5927\uff0c\u4f46\u9577\u671f\u56de\u6b78\u5e73\u5747<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u5747\u503c\u56de\u6b78\u7528\u5728\u91d1\u878d\u9818\u57df\u7684\u8a71\uff0c\u662f\u6307<strong>\u4e00\u500b\u8cc7\u7522\u7684\u50f9\u683c\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u77ed\u671f\u504f\u96e2\u5e73\u5747\u5f88\u591a\uff0c\u90a3\u9577\u671f\u800c\u8a00\u66f4\u53ef\u80fd\u66f4\u53ef\u80fd\u5f80\u53cd\u65b9\u5411\u767c\u5c55\uff0c\u5f80\u5e73\u5747\u503c\u9760\u8fd1\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u4ee5\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u5404\u7a2e\u8cc7\u7522\u70ba\u4f8b\uff0c\u77ed\u671f\u5167\u9ad8\u5831\u916c\u3001\u8868\u73fe\u4e0d\u932f\u7684\u8cc7\u7522\uff0c\u5728\u672a\u4f86\u5e7e\u500b\u5e74\u5ea6\uff0c\u5728\u5831\u916c\u7387\u8207\u540d\u6b21\u5e38\u5e38\u7121\u6cd5\u7e7c\u7e8c\u4fdd\u6301\u9818\u5148\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u5728\u67d0\u4e00\u5e74\u5927\u5e45\u9818\u5148\u5f8c\uff0c\u96a8\u5f8c\u8868\u73fe\u99ac\u4e0a\u4e5f\u5927\u5e45\u843d\u5f8c\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4e0b\u5716\u53ef\u4ee5\u89c0\u5bdf\u5230\u5404\u7a2e\u4e0d\u540c\u8cc7\u7522\u5225\uff0c\u5728\u4e0d\u540c\u5e74\u5ea6\u7684\u8868\u73fe\uff0c\u4f60\u53ef\u4ee5\u767c\u73fe\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4e00\u500b\u7576\u5e74\u5831\u916c\u51fa\u73fe\u7279\u5225\u9ad8\u6216\u7279\u5225\u4f4e\uff0c\u5b83\u7684\u524d\u5f8c\u5f80\u5f80\u4e5f\u5bb9\u6613\u51fa\u73fe\u53cd\u5411\u7684\u5831\u916c\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u53e6\u5916\u6211\u5011\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u89c0\u5bdf\u5230\uff0c\u5404\u8cc7\u7522\u77ed\u671f\u6700\u4f73(Best)\u548c\u6700\u5dee(Worst)\u4e00\u5e74\u7684\u5831\u916c\uff0c\u5176\u5be6\u4e0a\u4e0b\u9ad8\u4f4e\u843d\u5dee\u5de8\u5927\uff0c\u4f46\u9577\u671f\u5e73\u5747\u503c\u537b\u76f8\u7576\u7a69\u5b9a\uff0c\u4e5f\u8aaa\u660e\u5373\u4f7f\u77ed\u671f\u51fa\u73fe\u5287\u70c8\u8b8a\u5316\uff0c\u9577\u671f\u4ecd\u662f\u6703\u53cd\u5411\u767c\u5c55\u56de\u6b78\u5747\u503c\u3002<br \/>\n(\u4e0b\u9762\u9019\u4f8b\u5b50\u50c5\u5217\u51fa\u904e\u53bb15\u5e74\u7684\u5831\u916c\uff0c\u6709\u8208\u8da3\u7684\u8b80\u8005\u53ef\u4ee5\u81ea\u884c\u53bb\u6bd4\u5c0d\u66f4\u9577\u671f\u7684\u5831\u916c)<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-51062\" src=/index.html"https:\/\/\/wp-content\/uploads\/20230424113638_31.jpg\" alt=\"\u8a31\u591a\u8cc7\u7522\u7684\u8868\u73fe\u9577\u671f\u5448\u73fe\u51fa\u5747\u503c\u56de\u6b78\u7279\u6027 \" width=\"1171\" height=\"785\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%E5%9D%87%E5%80%BC%E5%9B%9E%E6%AD%B8%E7%94%A8%E5%9C%A8%E9%87%91%E8%9E%8D%E5%B8%82%E5%A0%B4%E7%9A%84%E6%84%8F%E7%BE%A9\"><\/span>\u5747\u503c\u56de\u6b78\u7528\u5728\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u610f\u7fa9<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p><strong>\u5c0d\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u4f86\u8aaa\uff0c\u9577\u671f\u6295\u8cc7\uff0c\u7d50\u679c\u6703\u8da8\u65bc\u5e73\u5747<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u4f8b\u5982\u4ee5\u80a1\u5e02\u5831\u916c\u7387\u4f86\u8aaa\uff0c<strong>\u96a8\u8457\u6642\u9593\u6108\u4f86\u6108\u9577\uff0c\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u6240\u80fd\u7372\u5f97\u7684\u5831\u916c\u7387\u6703\u8da8\u8fd1\u65bc\u5e02\u5834\u5e73\u5747\u503c<\/strong>\uff0c\u4e26\u4e14\u5448\u73fe\u4e00\u500b\u9418\u578b\u7684\u5e38\u614b\u5206\u4f48\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4e00\u4e9b\u6975\u7aef\u503c\uff0c\u5982\u66b4\u6f32\u6216\u66b4\u8dcc\uff0c\u90fd\u4e0d\u662f\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u5e38\u614b\uff0c\u6700\u5f8c\u6703\u8da8\u65bc\u5e73\u5747\u5831\u916c\u7387\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u56e0\u6b64\u77ed\u671f\u6295\u8cc7\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u53ef\u80fd\u6703\u5f97\u5230\u4e0a\u4e0b\u5dee\u7570\u5de8\u5927\u7684\u7d50\u679c\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u4f60\u53ef\u80fd\u6703\u525b\u597d\u8cb7\u5230\u66b4\u6f32\u6216\u66b4\u8dcc\u90a3\u4e00\u5e74\uff0c<\/p>\n<p>\u4f46\u62c9\u9577\u6295\u8cc7\u6642\u9593\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u5747\u503c\u56de\u6b78\u7279\u6027\uff0c\u6295\u8cc7\u7d50\u679c\u6703\u8da8\u65bc\u5e02\u5834\u9577\u671f\u7684\u5408\u7406\u56de\u5831\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u5f97\u5230\u7684\u7d50\u679c\u6703\u8da8\u65bc\u5e73\u5747\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u53ef\u95b1\u8b80\uff1a<a href=/index.html"https:\/\/\/long-term-invest-100\/\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u9577\u671f\u6295\u8cc7vs\u77ed\u671f\u6295\u8cc7\u5dee\u7570<\/a><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u5f9e\u6574\u9ad4\u4f86\u770b\uff0c\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u4ee5\u53ca\u5171\u540c\u57fa\u91d1\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u7e3e\u6548\uff0c\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u51fa\u73fe\u5747\u503c\u56de\u6b78\u7684\u7279\u6027<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u8209\u4f8b\u4f86\u8aaa\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u6703\u89c0\u5bdf\u5230\u4e00\u4e9b\u4eca\u5e74\u5ea6\u8868\u73fe\u5927\u5e45\u9818\u5148\u5927\u76e4\u7684\u5f97\u734e\u57fa\u91d1\uff0c\u5728\u672a\u4f86\u5e7e\u5e74\u537b\u53cd\u800c\u8868\u73fe\u8f03\u5dee\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u67d0\u7a2e\u7a0b\u5ea6\u9019\u4e5f\u7b26\u5408\u5747\u503c\u56de\u6b78\u7684\u7279\u6027\uff0c\u539f\u56e0\u5728\u65bc\u9019\u4e9b\u57fa\u91d1\u4e5f\u8a31\u627f\u64d4\u4e86\u67d0\u4e9b\u9ad8\u98a8\u96aa\uff0c\u800c\u627f\u64d4\u9ad8\u98a8\u96aa\u5728\u67d0\u4e9b\u6642\u5019\u4e5f\u8a31\u80fd\u5275\u9020\u5de8\u5927\u7372\u5229\uff0c\u4f46\u5728\u53e6\u4e00\u4e9b\u6642\u5019\u5247\u662f\u6709\u5de8\u5927\u50b7\u5bb3\uff0c<\/p>\n<p>\u9577\u671f\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u7e3e\u6548\u6703\u9010\u6f38\u5b8c\u6574\u53cd\u61c9\u5b83\u6240\u627f\u64d4\u7684\u5404\u7a2e\u98a8\u96aa\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u8868\u73fe\u51fa\u5747\u503c\u56de\u6b78\u7684\u7279\u6027\u3002<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><strong>\u5e02\u5834\u5148\u751f\u63d0\u793a\uff1a\u300c\u8ffd\u71b1\u9580\u3001\u8ffd\u9ad8\u300d\u662f\u5426\u662f\u500b\u597d\u7b56\u7565\uff1f<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u5118\u7ba1\u8a31\u591a\u8cc7\u7522\u6216\u5171\u540c\u57fa\u91d1\u8868\u73fe\u5448\u73fe\u6709\u5747\u503c\u56de\u6b78\u7684\u7279\u6027\uff0c<\/p>\n<p>\u4f46\u662f\u7121\u8ad6\u662f\u91d1\u878d\u696d\u8005\u505a\u884c\u92b7\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u627e\u6295\u8cc7\u984c\u6750\u6a19\u7684\uff0c\u5f80\u5f80\u90fd\u662f\u559c\u6b61\u300c\u904e\u53bb\u4e00\u6bb5\u6642\u9593\u8868\u73fe\u7279\u5225\u597d\u7684\u300d\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u7406\u89e3\u5747\u503c\u56de\u6b78\u7279\u6027\u4ee5\u5f8c\u4f60\u6703\u77e5\u9053\uff0c\u904e\u53bb\u4e00\u6bb5\u6642\u9593\u7279\u5225\u8f03\u5dee\uff0c\u5f88\u53ef\u80fd\u4ee3\u8868\u5728\u672a\u4f86\u4e00\u6bb5\u6642\u9593\u8868\u73fe\u8f03\u5dee\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\u8ffd\u9010\u71b1\u9580\u9577\u671f\u800c\u8a00\u4e5f\u8a31\u4e26\u975e\u597d\u7b56\u7565\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6211\u8a8d\u70ba\uff0c\u60f3\u8ffd\u9ad8\u4e0d\u662f\u4e0d\u884c\uff0c\u4f46\u5b83\u5fc5\u9808\u662f\u77ed\u7dda\u884c\u70ba\uff0c\u4e14\u5fc5\u9808\u6709\u9000\u5834\u7684\u914d\u5957\u6a5f\u5236\u3002\u7562\u7adf\u5747\u503c\u56de\u6b78\u7684\u53cd\u5411\u8d70\u52e2\uff0c\u5176\u5be6\u4e26\u4e0d\u4e00\u5b9a\u5728\u6703\u7acb\u523b\u51fa\u73fe\uff0c\u77ed\u671f\u5167\u4ecd\u53ef\u80fd\u7e7c\u7e8c\u504f\u96e2\u5e73\u5747\uff0c\u9019\u7a2e\u8da8\u52e2\u6027\u5176\u5be6\u4e5f\u662f\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u7279\u6027\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u4e5f\u8a31\u5c0d\u67d0\u4e9b\u4eba\u4f86\u8aaa\uff0c\u9019\u662f\u503c\u5f97\u638c\u63e1\u7684\u6a5f\u6703\u3002\u4f46\u53ea\u8981\u5747\u503c\u56de\u6b78\u7279\u6027\u5b58\u5728\uff0c\u90a3\u8da8\u52e2\u5c31\u7d42\u7a76\u6709\u7d50\u675f\u7684\u4e00\u5929\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u6c92\u6709\u6a5f\u5236\u4f86\u61c9\u5c0d\u8da8\u52e2\u7d50\u675f\uff0c\u90a3\u6700\u7d42\u6295\u8cc7\u6210\u679c\u4ecd\u9700\u8981\u56de\u6b78\u5e73\u5747\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u56e0\u70ba\u8ffd\u9ad8\u843d\u5f8c\u5e73\u5747\u3002<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%E5%9D%87%E5%80%BC%E5%9B%9E%E6%AD%B8%E7%9A%84%E5%B8%B8%E8%A6%8B%E8%AA%A4%E8%A7%A3\"><\/span>\u5747\u503c\u56de\u6b78\u7684\u5e38\u898b\u8aa4\u89e3<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>\u5747\u503c\u56de\u6b78\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\u5f88\u5bb9\u6613\u88ab\u6feb\u7528\uff0c\u4ee5\u4e0b\u662f\u5e7e\u500b\u5e38\u898b\u7684\u554f\u984c\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>1. \u8ced\u5f92\u8b2c\u8aa4 (Gambler\u2019s fallacy)\uff0c\u932f\u8aa4\u7684\u5047\u8a2d\u8ced\u535a\u7684\u6a5f\u7387\u662f\u4e00\u7a2e\u5747\u503c\u56de\u6b78\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u8ced\u5f92\u8b2c\u8aa4\u662f\u932f\u8aa4\u5730\u8a8d\u70ba\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u67d0\u500b\u4e8b\u4ef6\u5728\u904e\u53bb\u4e0d\u5e38\u767c\u751f\uff0c\u672a\u4f86\u767c\u751f\u7684\u6a5f\u7387\u6bd4\u8f03\u9ad8\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\u9ab0\u5b50\u5df2\u7d93\u5f88\u4e45\u6c92\u6709\u51fa\u73fe6\u4e86\uff0c\u90a3\u9ebc\u4e0b\u4e00\u6b21\u51fa\u73fe6\u7684\u6a5f\u7387\u6703\u6bd4\u8f03\u9ad8\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4f46\u5be6\u969b\u4e0a\uff0c\u9ab0\u5b50\u6bcf\u6b21\u9ab0\u51fa6\u7684\u6a5f\u7387\u90fd\u662f\u4e00\u6a23\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u539f\u56e0\u5728\u65bc\u6bcf\u6b21\u64f2\u9ab0\u5b50\u5176\u5be6\u662f\u7368\u7acb\u4e8b\u4ef6\uff0c\u8207\u524d\u5f8c\u4e0d\u76f8\u95dc\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u56e0\u6b64\u91cd\u65b0\u64f2\u9ab0\u5b50\uff0c\u51fa\u73fe\u6bcf\u4e00\u9762\u7684\u6a5f\u7387\u5176\u5be6\u4ecd\u662f\u4e00\u6a23\u7684\uff0c\u4e26\u4e0d\u6703\u56e0\u70ba\u524d\u9762\u64f2\u51fa\u5e7e\u6b21\u800c\u6709\u6240\u6539\u8b8a\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u9019\u4e5f\u662f\u5747\u503c\u56de\u6b78\u4e00\u500b\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u7279\u6027\uff1a\u53ea\u6709\u524d\u5f8c\u6709\u76f8\u95dc\u7684\u4e8b\u4ef6\uff0c\u624d\u6703\u5728\u6642\u9593\u9ede\u4e0a\u5448\u73fe\u5747\u503c\u56de\u6b78\u7279\u6027\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u800c\u7368\u7acb\u7684\u4e8b\u4ef6\uff08\u4f8b\u5982\u64f2\u9ab0\u5b50\uff09\uff0c\u53ea\u5728\u9577\u671f\u5448\u73fe\u5747\u503c\u56de\u6b78\u7684\u7279\u6027\uff0c\u4f46\u4e26\u7121\u6cd5\u5728\u7279\u5b9a\u6642\u9593\u9ede\uff08\u4f8b\u5982\u4e0b\u6b21\u64f2\u9ab0\u5b50\uff09\u7528\u5747\u503c\u56de\u6b78\u7684\u7279\u6027\u53bb\u5224\u65b7\u5b83\u7684\u8868\u73fe\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>2. \u5373\u4f7f\u662f\u524d\u5f8c\u6709\u76f8\u95dc\u7684\u4e8b\u4ef6\uff0c\u6642\u6a5f\u9ede\u4ecd\u662f\u96e3\u4ee5\u9810\u6e2c\u7684<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u5728\u80a1\u7968\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u7b56\u7565\u4e0a\uff0c\u4e5f\u6709\u4e9b\u4eba\u6703\u61c9\u7528\u5747\u503c\u56de\u6b78\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\uff0c\u9019\u4e9b\u4eba\u8a8d\u70ba\uff0c\u7576\u80a1\u50f9\u504f\u96e2\u5e02\u5834\u4f30\u503c\u592a\u591a\u6642\uff0c\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u6703\u7522\u751f\u5747\u503c\u56de\u6b78\u7684\u4fee\u6b63\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u4ed6\u5011\u8a2d\u5b9a\u50f9\u683c\u5340\u9593\u505a\u591a\u7a7a\u4ea4\u6613\uff0c\u7576\u80a1\u50f9\u9054\u5230\u4f30\u503c\u5e95\u90e8\u6642\u5c31\u8cb7\u9032\uff0c\u9054\u5230\u4f30\u503c\u9802\u90e8\u6642\u5c31\u8ce3\u51fa\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u9019\u6a23\u4ea4\u6613\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\u662f\u5f88\u5927\u7684\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u5747\u503c\u56de\u6b78\u662f\u7528\u5728\u5177\u6709\u4e00\u5b9a\u7684\u6a23\u672c\u6578\u53ca\u6642\u9593\u9577\u5ea6\u4e0a\uff0c\u4f46\u7528\u4f86\u505a\u500b\u80a1\u7684\u77ed\u7dda\u4ea4\u6613\u5176\u5be6\u5f88\u96e3\u7cbe\u6e96\u5224\u65b7\u6642\u6a5f\u9ede\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>3. \u5747\u503c\u56de\u6b78\u53ef\u4ee5\u7528\u4f86\u89e3\u91cb\u6574\u9ad4\u73fe\u8c61\uff0c\u4f46\u5f88\u96e3\u7528\u4f86\u89e3\u91cb\u500b\u9ad4\u8868\u73fe<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u4f8b\u5982\u524d\u9762\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u53ef\u4ee5\u7528\u5747\u503c\u56de\u6b78\u4f86\u8ac7\u6574\u9ad4\u80a1\u5e02\u7684\u8868\u73fe\uff0c\u4f46\u5c0d\u65bc\u55ae\u4e00\u500b\u80a1\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u5f71\u97ff\u56e0\u7d20\u592a\u591a\uff0c\u53cd\u800c\u4e0d\u898b\u5f97\u5b58\u5728\u5747\u503c\u56de\u6b78\u7279\u6027\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4f8b\u5982\u67d0\u516c\u53f8\u80a1\u50f9\u4e0b\u8dcc\u662f\u56e0\u70ba\u8ca1\u52d9\u9020\u5047\uff0c\u90a3\u80a1\u7968\u53ef\u80fd\u4e00\u8def\u8dcc\u6210\u58c1\u7d19\uff0c\u6c38\u9060\u4e0d\u6703\u767c\u751f\u5747\u503c\u56de\u6b78\u3002<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%E5%B8%82%E5%A0%B4%E5%85%88%E7%94%9F%E8%A7%80%E9%BB%9E%EF%BC%9A%E5%9C%A8%E6%8A%95%E8%B3%87%E6%93%8D%E4%BD%9C%E4%B8%8A%EF%BC%8C%E9%97%9C%E9%8D%B5%E5%85%B6%E5%AF%A6%E4%B8%8D%E6%98%AF%E3%80%8C%E5%9D%87%E5%80%BC%E5%9B%9E%E6%AD%B8%E3%80%8D%E8%80%8C%E6%98%AF%E3%80%8C%E9%95%B7%E6%9C%9F%E3%80%8D\"><\/span>\u5e02\u5834\u5148\u751f\u89c0\u9ede\uff1a\u5728\u6295\u8cc7\u64cd\u4f5c\u4e0a\uff0c\u95dc\u9375\u5176\u5be6\u4e0d\u662f\u300c\u5747\u503c\u56de\u6b78\u300d\u800c\u662f\u300c\u9577\u671f\u300d<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>\u6211\u5011\u5728\u8a31\u591a\u6295\u8cc7\u65b9\u6cd5\u4e0a\u90fd\u80fd\u770b\u5230\u5747\u503c\u56de\u6b78\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\uff0c<\/p>\n<p>\u4ee5\u77ed\u671f\u4f86\u8aaa\uff0c\u50cf\u662f<a href=/index.html"https:\/\/\/what-is-kd-indicator\/\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">KD\u6307\u6a19<\/a>\u3001<a href=/index.html"https:\/\/\/rsi-index-review\/\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">RSI\u6307\u6a19<\/a>\u3001\u4e56\u96e2\u7387\uff0c\u67d0\u7a2e\u7a0b\u5ea6\u90fd\u662f\u5728\u6aa2\u9a57\u50f9\u683c\u504f\u96e2\u77ed\u671f\u5e73\u5747\u591a\u5c11\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u8aaa\uff0c\u9019\u4e9b\u6280\u8853\u6307\u6a19\u8a2d\u8a08\u80cc\u5f8c\u7684\u610f\u7fa9\uff0c\u662f\u5047\u8a2d\u7576\u77ed\u671f\u50f9\u683c\u504f\u96e2\u8a31\u591a\u6642\uff0c\u5c6c\u65bc\u6975\u7aef\u72c0\u6cc1\uff0c\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u53cd\u5411\u767c\u5c55\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4ee5\u9577\u671f\u4f86\u8aaa\uff0c\u5982\u540c\u524d\u9762\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u6703\u8a8d\u70ba\u80a1\u5e02\u53ca\u5404\u8cc7\u7522\u6574\u9ad4\u8868\u73fe\uff0c\u9577\u671f\u6703\u56de\u6b78\u5b83\u7684\u9577\u671f\u5e73\u5747\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u554f\u984c\u662f\uff1a\u5982\u679c\u6709\u56de\u6b78\u5e73\u5747\u7279\u6027\uff0c\u90a3\u50f9\u683c\u504f\u96e2\u6642\u53cd\u5411\u64cd\u4f5c\u5c31\u4e00\u5b9a\u80fd\u8cfa\u9322\u55ce\uff1f<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u9019\u5c31\u662f\u95dc\u9375\u7684\u554f\u984c\u6240\u5728\uff0c<\/p>\n<p>\u504f\u96e2\u592a\u591a\u5c31\u6703\u56de\u6b78\u5747\u503c\uff0c\u9019\u60f3\u6cd5\u5f88\u5e38\u898b\uff0c\u4f46\u5e02\u5834\u5148\u751f\u8a8d\u70ba\u67093\u500b\u95dc\u9375\u56e0\u7d20\u6c92\u6709\u8003\u616e\u5230\uff1a<\/p>\n<p><strong>1. \u504f\u96e2\u5e73\u5747\u5f88\u591a\uff0c\u4f46\u4ecd\u53ef\u80fd\u504f\u96e2\u66f4\u591a\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u6240\u4ee5\u5373\u4f7f\u4f60\u53cd\u5411\u64cd\u4f5c\uff0c\u8a8d\u70ba\u5b83\u6703\u56de\u6b78\u5e73\u5747\uff0c\u4f46\u73fe\u5be6\u662f\u53ef\u80fd\u5b8c\u5168\u6c92\u6709\u56de\u6b78\u5e73\u5747\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u7e7c\u7e8c\u504f\u96e2\u5e73\u5747\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5c0d\u64cd\u4f5c\u4f86\u8aaa\uff0c\u4f60\u8981\u5728\u504f\u96e2\u591a\u5927\u6642\u9032\u5834\uff1f\u4f8b\u5982\u4f60\u8a8d\u70ba\u5e73\u5747\u503c\u662f5%\uff0c\u4f46\u77ed\u671f\u51fa\u73fe+20%\uff0c\u4f60\u8a8d\u70ba\u504f\u96e2\u592a\u5927\u56e0\u6b64\u53cd\u5411\u64cd\u4f5c\uff0c\u4f46\u6703\u4e0d\u6703\u672a\u4f86\u7e7c\u7e8c\u51fa\u73fe+40%\u6216\u66f4\u5927\u7684\u504f\u96e2\uff1f<\/p>\n<p><strong>2. \u5373\u4f7f\u9577\u671f\u6703\u56de\u6b78\u5e73\u5747\uff0c\u4f46\u9577\u671f\u7684\u6642\u9593\u9ede\u53ef\u80fd\u975e\u9577\u9059\u9060\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u4f8b\u5982\u5c31\u7b97\u9577\u671f\u6703\u5747\u503c\u56de\u6b78\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u5426\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u5b83\u5148\u7e7c\u7e8c\u504f\u96e2\u5e73\u57473~5\u5e74\uff0c\u7136\u5f8c\u624d\u6162\u6162\u53cd\u5411\u767c\u5c55\u56de\u6b78\u5e73\u5747\uff1f<\/p>\n<p>\u5c0d\u65bc\u6295\u8cc7\u4f86\u8aaa\uff0c\u8cc7\u91d1\u6709\u6642\u9593\u7684\u6a5f\u6703\u6210\u672c\u3001\u6709\u627f\u53d7\u98a8\u96aa\u80fd\u529b\u7684\u4e0a\u9650\uff0c<\/p>\n<p>\u5373\u4f7f\u5747\u503c\u56de\u6b78\u9577\u671f\u800c\u8a00\u662f\u5c0d\u7684\uff0c\u4f46\u6211\u5011\u4ecd\u7121\u6cd5\u78ba\u5b9a\u9577\u671f\u6709\u591a\u9577\uff0c\u96e3\u4ee5\u5c0d\u6642\u6a5f\u9ede\u505a\u51fa\u5224\u65b7\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>3. 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class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%E5%BF%AB%E9%80%9F%E9%87%8D%E9%BB%9E%E6%95%B4%E7%90%86%EF%BC%9A%E4%BB%80%E9%BA%BC%E6%98%AF%E5%9D%87%E5%80%BC%E5%9B%9E%E6%AD%B8%EF%BC%9F%E5%9C%A8%E9%87%91%E8%9E%8D%E6%8A%95%E8%B3%87%E4%B8%AD%E6%9C%89%E4%BB%80%E9%BA%BC%E6%84%8F%E7%BE%A9%EF%BC%9F\"><\/span>\u5feb\u901f\u91cd\u9ede\u6574\u7406\uff1a\u4ec0\u9ebc\u662f\u5747\u503c\u56de\u6b78\uff1f\u5728\u91d1\u878d\u6295\u8cc7\u4e2d\u6709\u4ec0\u9ebc\u610f\u7fa9\uff1f<span 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data-wpel-link=\"external\">\u7f8e\u80a1ETF\u5275\u9020\u7a69\u5b9a\u73fe\u91d1\u6d41\u7dda\u4e0a\u8ab2\u7a0b\u9023\u7d50<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u5747\u503c\u56de\u6b78\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u7d71\u8a08\u5b78\u4e0a\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\uff0c\u5728\u91d1\u878d\u5b78\u4e0a\u4e5f\u5e38\u5e38\u88ab\u61c9\u7528\u5728\u80a1\u5e02\uff0c\u8aaa\u660e\u80a1\u5e02\u7684\u5831\u916c\u9577\u671f\u7d42\u7a76\u6703\u56de\u5230\u5e73\u5747\u6c34\u6e96\u3002 \u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5747\u503c 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